Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUN NIGHT)...
UNSTAB AIR/WEAK CIRCULATION ALOFT TOUCHED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MID TN...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A
FEW STRONG CELLS IN LAWRENCE/GILES COUNTIES ATTM WITH 3000+ CAPES
NEARBY. KEY WAS THE VERY UNSTAB AIR IN THE 12Z RAOB THIS MORNING
THAT CONTAINED DESTAB WITH UPR WAVE ALOFT.

WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE IS STATIONARY AS PER SUBSISTENCE OVR WEST TN
IN VIS IMAGERY...WITH CELL MERGERS ON ACTIVE SIDE IN THE CNTL PLATEAU.
SOME HYDRO CONCERNS IN THE CNTRL PLATEAU WITH FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 23Z. EVENING STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN OR DIE OUT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING. NOT EXPECTED STORMS TO REFIRE AFT MIDNIGHT
ACR MID TN.

INSTEAD...MCS ACTIVITY IN MO WL SINK SOUTH AND EXPAND TO A SQUALL
LINE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MID TN SAT SUSTAINED
BY A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL INC DURING THE DAY
WITH FROPA EXPECTED EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
LOW SHEAR EVENT...SO PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. PCPN
SHOULD SCATTER SAT NITE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...
DRY PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. COOL MORNING LOWS MON-
TUE...WITH UPR RIDGE/WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WED-FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  80  53  67 /  20  80  60  20
CLARKSVILLE    65  78  51  67 /  20  80  50  10
CROSSVILLE     61  76  52  61 /  30  80  80  30
COLUMBIA       65  81  55  66 /  20  80  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   65  81  56  66 /  20  80  80  20
WAVERLY        65  79  53  67 /  20  80  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
950 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ADDED SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-161500-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
950 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     HAIL             8 S JAMESTOWN           36.32N 84.94W
05/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       FENTRESS           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED.

0217 PM     HAIL             5 S LAWRENCEBURG        35.17N 87.34W
05/15/2009  E0.50 INCH       LAWRENCE           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER NEAR LEOME

0217 PM     HAIL             2 S MURFREESBORO        35.82N 86.39W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY 231 SOUTH

0227 PM     HAIL             MURFREESBORO            35.85N 86.39W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR I-24 AND CHURCH STREET

0240 PM     HAIL             SPARTA                  35.93N 85.47W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       WHITE              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN SPARTA

&&

JBW

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