Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 151823
SVSOHX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
123 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TNC087-151900-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-090515T1900Z/
JACKSON TN-
123 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GAINESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GAINESBORO BY 135 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3629 8551 3625 8574 3644 8581 3648 8558
      3648 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 255DEG 11KT 3636 8569

$$
31/JBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE...WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. WITH THIS
BEING A MOIST AIRMASS EVENT AND MAINLY DIURNAL BASED...VERY HARD
TO DO AN EXACT PINPOINT OF LOCATION DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...USED
VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID TIME PERIOD. TAF CEILINGS AND WINDS
SHOULD BE USED FOR GENERAL GUIDANCE AS LOCALIZED LOWER CEILINGS
AND HIGHER WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/

.MESO UPDATE... 12Z KBNA RAOB UNSTABLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE. HEATING
SHOULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 50 MPH WITH
CELL BASED VIL AROUND 40. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
EXPECTED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH A
FEW PERTURBATIONS HERE AND THERE. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE JUST TO
THE SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS NORTH MS...UP
TO NEAR MEM.

A WET COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINS IN THE WORKS. SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TODAY/TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MID-WEST BY DAYS END AND AND TRIES TO MERGE WITH GREAT LAKES
LOW LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE THE CWA INTO WARM MORE UNSTABLE
SECTOR. INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND ML UVV EXPECTED TO SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN TONIGHT AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS WITH VERY
LITTLE UVV AND DIURNAL AFFECTS.

MAIN PUSH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SFC/LL
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF ML/UL TROUGH...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH AN INCREASE IN LL FORCING AS
WELL AS A PRETTY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REMAIN
PLENTIFUL WELL INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND
EAST BY 12Z SUN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS LATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A FAIRLY LONG-LASTING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
STRING OF DRY WARM DAYS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/JBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
950 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ADDED SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-161500-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
950 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     HAIL             8 S JAMESTOWN           36.32N 84.94W
05/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       FENTRESS           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

JBW