Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT AFD DUE TO ACTIVE WX THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEAR TERM. MUCAPES AROUND 4000J/KG WITH ESHR VALUES 60-70KTS ONCE
AGAIN POINTING TO PROBABLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. PROGGED MLLFC HGTS APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE
TOR DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT. ALSO ENHANCING SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS S/W ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING REACHING ERN NEB BY 00Z MON. AFTN TS INITIATION
OF COURSE WILL BE DICTATED BY BNDRY POSITION. BEST GUESS USING
NAM/GFS COMPROMISE OF BNDRY LYR MOIST CONVG/2-D QN FORCING PUTS
CONVECTION FIRING SOMEWHERE FROM NERN NEB TO NCNTRL KS. EXPECT
STORMS WILL ADVANCE EWD QUICKLY THRU THE EVENING ALONG
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AS ATTENDANT SFC LOW LIFTS OUT OF KS AND
INTO IA BY 12Z MON. FOR MONDAY NIGHT BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WEDGE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THRU KS AND UP INTO WRN NEB. HOWEVER WILL HOLD
OFF ADDING SMALL POPS OVER THE WRN CWA SINCE POTENTIAL FOR TS
DEVELOPMENT IS FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE CWA. NEXT TS CHANCES COME
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AS ANOTHER SFC BNDRY SETS UP INVOF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 08/06Z.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KLNK AND KOMA
SITES THROUGH 09Z...RELEGATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CONDITIONS...AND BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS. AFTER
09Z...THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...KEEPING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR AT ALL SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BEGINNING 12Z
AT KLNK...15Z AT KOMA...AND 16Z AT KOFK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...WITH
INCREASING WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE
INTRODUCED TSRA TO KLNK AT 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DEE/KURTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071700-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTLOOK
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...AMPLE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH STOUT
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS POSSIBLE TORNADIC ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW BEAVER CROSSING    40.82N 97.34W
06/06/2009  M58 MPH          SEWARD             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
820 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     HAIL             5 N AUBURN              40.46N 95.84W
06/07/2009  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DELAYED REPORT FROM OFF-DUTY NWS. 5 MI N OF AUBURN ON HWY
            75.

&&

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     HAIL             FAIRBURY                40.14N 97.18W
06/06/2009  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1053 PM     HAIL             HARBINE                 40.19N 96.97W
06/06/2009  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1056 PM     HAIL             DILLER                  40.11N 96.94W
06/06/2009  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1111 PM     HAIL             3 SE REYNOLDS           40.03N 97.30W
06/06/2009  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1123 PM     HAIL             2 SW FAIRBURY           40.12N 97.20W
06/06/2009  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1130 PM     HAIL             4 W FAIRBURY            40.14N 97.25W
06/06/2009  E1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

1133 PM     HAIL             5 W FAIRBURY            40.14N 97.27W
06/06/2009  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   PUBLIC

1142 PM     HAIL             4 S PLYMOUTH            40.25N 96.99W
06/06/2009  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1155 PM     HAIL             2 E PLYMOUTH            40.30N 96.95W
06/06/2009  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

1157 PM     HAIL             PLYMOUTH                40.30N 96.99W
06/06/2009  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   PUBLIC

1213 AM     HAIL             1 SSW WESTERN           40.38N 97.21W
06/07/2009  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

1213 AM     HAIL             5 N AUBURN              40.46N 95.84W
06/07/2009  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DELAYED REPORT FROM OFF-DUTY NWS. 5 MI N OF AUBURN ON HWY
            75.

1218 AM     HAIL             1 E WESTERN             40.39N 97.18W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1221 AM     HAIL             2 NW SWANTON            40.40N 97.11W
06/07/2009  M0.88 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1248 AM     HAIL             5 N CRETE               40.70N 96.96W
06/07/2009  E0.75 INCH       SEWARD             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0105 AM     HAIL             W LINCOLN               40.82N 96.69W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL...NORTH NORTHEAST OF
            CUSHMAN...WHICH IS WEST OF LINCOLN.

0112 AM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT 27TH AND SUPERIOR

0123 AM     HAIL             DENTON                  40.74N 96.84W
06/07/2009  M1.00 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0151 AM     HAIL             PERU                    40.48N 95.73W
06/07/2009  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0217 AM     HAIL             NEBRASKA CITY           40.68N 95.86W
06/07/2009  M0.75 INCH       OTOE               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MAYES

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