Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT AFD DUE TO ACTIVE WX THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEAR TERM. MUCAPES AROUND 4000J/KG WITH ESHR VALUES 60-70KTS ONCE
AGAIN POINTING TO PROBABLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. PROGGED MLLFC HGTS APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE
TOR DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT. ALSO ENHANCING SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS S/W ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING REACHING ERN NEB BY 00Z MON. AFTN TS INITIATION
OF COURSE WILL BE DICTATED BY BNDRY POSITION. BEST GUESS USING
NAM/GFS COMPROMISE OF BNDRY LYR MOIST CONVG/2-D QN FORCING PUTS
CONVECTION FIRING SOMEWHERE FROM NERN NEB TO NCNTRL KS. EXPECT
STORMS WILL ADVANCE EWD QUICKLY THRU THE EVENING ALONG
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AS ATTENDANT SFC LOW LIFTS OUT OF KS AND
INTO IA BY 12Z MON. FOR MONDAY NIGHT BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WEDGE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THRU KS AND UP INTO WRN NEB. HOWEVER WILL HOLD
OFF ADDING SMALL POPS OVER THE WRN CWA SINCE POTENTIAL FOR TS
DEVELOPMENT IS FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE CWA. NEXT TS CHANCES COME
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AS ANOTHER SFC BNDRY SETS UP INVOF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 08/06Z.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KLNK AND KOMA
SITES THROUGH 09Z...RELEGATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CONDITIONS...AND BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS. AFTER
09Z...THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...KEEPING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR AT ALL SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BEGINNING 12Z
AT KLNK...15Z AT KOMA...AND 16Z AT KOFK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...WITH
INCREASING WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE
INTRODUCED TSRA TO KLNK AT 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DEE/KURTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071700-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTLOOK
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...AMPLE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH STOUT
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS POSSIBLE TORNADIC ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

DEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW BEAVER CROSSING    40.82N 97.34W
06/06/2009  M58 MPH          SEWARD             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KERN