Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07 UTC FOR THE PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. SATELLITE SHOWS NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF
300MB JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 11
PM. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LACKING...UPPER DYNAMICS IS VERY
STRONG WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE (850MB WINDS
OF 50KT+). MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ENOUGH SHEAR
REMAINS TO WARRANT THE POTENTIAL OF LOW-TOPPED MINI-SUPERCELLS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A CONCERN.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO...AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  63  42  73  51 / 100  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  62  42  72  47 / 100  20   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  42  72  48 / 100  20   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  59  39  69  41 / 100  40   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
     HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...
     MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
     SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST
     GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...
     SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
     SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...
     UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

DH

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