Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE
EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOVING A BIT FASTER PER
THE LATEST MODEL RUN. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FINALLY POPPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S OVER SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
...THEN LOOK FOR MAIN SQUALL LINE TO APPROACH AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

CONTINUED NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO CARRY THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS EARLIER ADVERTISED.

NAM-WRF AND GENERALLY THE GFS MODEL...BOTH SHOW SOME SHOWERS
LINGERING EARLY SATURDAY THEN LOOK DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. I TRENDED THE FORECAST GRIDS TOWARD THIS
DRIER SOLUTION...WITH MAIN FOCUS ON FIRST PERIOD GRIDS AND PRODUCTS
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO SIMILAR MOS TEMPS WITH TEMPS PROBABLY
RISING LITTLE IF ANY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FEATURES AN ACTIVE WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES CREATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY AWAITING MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY WHILE USING A
30 PERCENT POP FOR THE BIG EVENT ON FRIDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES STAYED
CLOSE TO HPC/MRF MOS BLEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  65  53  73  56 /  90  70  30  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  65  50  70  54 /  90  60  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  63  49  71  54 /  90  60  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  64  47  70  48 /  90  60  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...
     JOHNSON...MARION...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
     SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-101000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BECAUSE OF THIS STRONG WIND FLOW...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

TNZ084>086-099-100-092045-
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING BRADLEY...HAMILTON...
MCMINN...MEIGS AND MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DH