Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 128 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN FAR WESTERN MT...MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING. INITIALLY...VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATED THAT MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR SW MN
SINCE 15Z. SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SFC DEW POINTS HAVE SURGE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S IN EASTERN SD...AND FAR WESTERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR
DEPICTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN...AND SE ND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MINOR
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TAP AT LEAST SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL MN. IN ADDITION...AS
PER LATEST SPC RUC ANALYSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ADVECTION SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTN/EVENING. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
INITIALLY...AND A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS EASTERN
SD...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER
21Z. NO CAP IS EVIDENT IN EASTERN MN...BUT THIS AREA ALSO REMAINS
VERY DRY. LATEST HWO HAS MORE INFORMATION RELATED TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
BE SOUTH OF CWA...WITH MOST OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. NEXT SHORT WAVE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
TAPPING COOLER AIR FROM NORTHWEST CANADIAN. THEREFORE...AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
ANY TYPE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. A FEW SPRINKLES LOOK
BEST...AND MAINLY FOR CENTRAL MN.

ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINS LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
AFTER THURSDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...LOOKS TO BE CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THERE REMAINS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL LONG TERM MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ONE ITEM TO NOTE...THE MAIN POLAR JET STREAM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...RIDGE RIDERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY A CONCERN WITH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR FRI/SAT/SUN. ..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TRICKY SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
DEFINITELY PRIMED FOR STRONG STORMS INSTABILITY-WISE. THE MAIN
QUANDARIES AT THIS POINT ARE WHEN/IF THE CAP WILL ERODE...AND IF THE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONNECT
WITH THE AREA OF INSTABILITY. CURRENTLY EXPECT THE AREA OF STORMS
OVER SERN ND TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN /RIDING THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT/. THIS COULD CLIP KAXN...AND POSSIBLY KRWF
THIS EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ON
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET. PREFER THE LAPSWRF COMP REFLECTIVITY
SOLUTION...WHICH DRIVES THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...AND CONGEALS IT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS. COULD ENVISION STORMS EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING THE WEST CENTRAL WI SITES AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
UNTIL AROUND 05Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE KMSP VICINITY WILL
PROBABLY EXPERIENCE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WAA PLUME THIS
EVE...BUT MAY ESCAPE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHERE TS OCCUR.
ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED EASTERN SITES /KRNH AND
KEAU/ BY 09Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
727 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
031230-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
727 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...GENERATING THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     HAIL             2 SSE OWATONNA          44.06N 93.21W
08/02/2009  E0.50 INCH       STEELE             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     HAIL             2 SW BELLE PLAINE       44.60N 93.79W
08/02/2009  M0.50 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1212 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

WIZ026-030600-
PEPIN-
1212 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER PEPIN COUNTY THROUGH
100 AM CDT...

AT 1212 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORCUPINE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PORCUPINE.
  ARKANSAW.
  DURAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4459 9201 4443 9207 4441 9212 4442 9214
      4454 9219 4454 9214 4468 9213 4468 9166
      4459 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 251DEG 34KT 4456 9206

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     HAIL             ROBERTS                 44.99N 92.55W
08/03/2009  M1.00 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

WIZ023-030615-
ST. CROIX-
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ST. CROIX COUNTY
THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

AT 1229 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CYLON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOULTON.
  CYLON.
  EMERALD.
  GLENWOOD CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4502 9261 4510 9260 4521 9216 4513 9216
      4512 9214 4510 9214 4502 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 271DEG 34KT 4506 9241

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

WIZ025-027-028-030615-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CHIPPEWA...DUNN AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES
THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

AT 1234 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HERSEY TO 4 MILES EAST OF
MONDOVI. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DOWNING.
  CONNORSVILLE.
  BOYCEVILLE.
  WHEELER.
  TAINTER LAKE.
  BRACKETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4458 9101 4459 9164 4468 9166 4469 9187
      4502 9214 4512 9214 4513 9216 4517 9216
      4519 9091 4459 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 271DEG 32KT 4498 9220 4457 9157