Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING TO UNFOLD ACROSS CWA AS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. THANKS TO MORNING MCS THAT WENT
ACROSS IOWA...SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE MESSY...BUT THERE IS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO THE TWIN CITIES AND OVER TO
EAU CLAIRE. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG IN WRN MN AND ALL GUIDANCE BUT NAM INCREASES
MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS SRN MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHEER
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH PRESSURE
FALLS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS ERN SODAK...THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKELY. ALOFT...SEEING TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA. THE FIRST IS
OVER SERN NODAK AND HAS HELPED KICK OFF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW CWA. ANOTHER WAVE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SRN SODAK AND HAS
HAD A FIELD OF ACCUS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALL DAY. AS THIS GETS INTO
THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IT SHOULD HELP LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS IT SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP SEEN ON THE
18Z SOUNDING FROM MPX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS OVER SE MN TONIGHT AS 20 TO 30 KT LLJ POKES UP FROM IOWA INTO
THAT AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS MN IN THE MORNING
AND BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG...WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THIS TIME SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE BEST
ACROSS SE MN AND WI. STORM CHANCES WILL WILL FINALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT. TO GO ALONG WITH WITH THE DRYING OUT...WARM UP
WILL BEGIN AND WILL START SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

NEXT SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ALL MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. NAM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS WAVE AND GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA. GFS TAKES MOST OF THIS ENERGY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GENERATES VERY LITTLE PRECIP OVER THE MPX
CWA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...
FELT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO HAVE 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
AND PUSH THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF STALL THIS FRONT OUT ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL MCS TYPE ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
RATHER ISOLD LINE OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER JET AND REMAINS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MN.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THRUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA.  WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AT KMSP/KAXN AND A
TEMP -TSRA AT KSTC AS ACTIVE AREA MOVES EAST.  WITH SOME CLEARING
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG DVLP AGAIN.  NEXT
THREAT OF TSRA COMING MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN FA AND WILL CONTINUE
PROG30 MENTION WITH CB FOR NOW.  MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHRA DVLP
INTO CENTRAL MN AS WELL...AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTH.  WILL LEAVE THIS WIDELY SCT THREAT OUT FOR NOW.  LIGHT
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH SFC WIND SHOULD SWING MORE WEST AS TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1115 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT WITHIN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
931 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             4 WNW ST MARTIN         45.52N 94.74W
06/18/2009  M0.25 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             COLD SPRING             45.46N 94.43W
06/18/2009  M1.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             ROCKVILLE               45.47N 94.34W
06/18/2009  M0.88 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1029 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             5 SE PAYNESVILLE        45.33N 94.65W
06/18/2009  M0.25 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1143 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ047>049-055-057-190545-
KANDIYOHI-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-
1143 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

AT 1141 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF HANCOCK. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HANCOCK.
  CLONTARF.
  STARBUCK.
  SWIFT FALLS.
  GILCHRIST.
  SEDAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4571 9494 4538 9492 4533 9592 4556 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 260DEG 33KT 4543 9577

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