Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING TO UNFOLD ACROSS CWA AS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. THANKS TO MORNING MCS THAT WENT
ACROSS IOWA...SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE MESSY...BUT THERE IS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO THE TWIN CITIES AND OVER TO
EAU CLAIRE. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG IN WRN MN AND ALL GUIDANCE BUT NAM INCREASES
MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS SRN MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHEER
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH PRESSURE
FALLS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS ERN SODAK...THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKELY. ALOFT...SEEING TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA. THE FIRST IS
OVER SERN NODAK AND HAS HELPED KICK OFF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW CWA. ANOTHER WAVE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SRN SODAK AND HAS
HAD A FIELD OF ACCUS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALL DAY. AS THIS GETS INTO
THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IT SHOULD HELP LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS IT SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP SEEN ON THE
18Z SOUNDING FROM MPX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS OVER SE MN TONIGHT AS 20 TO 30 KT LLJ POKES UP FROM IOWA INTO
THAT AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS MN IN THE MORNING
AND BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG...WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THIS TIME SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE BEST
ACROSS SE MN AND WI. STORM CHANCES WILL WILL FINALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT. TO GO ALONG WITH WITH THE DRYING OUT...WARM UP
WILL BEGIN AND WILL START SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

NEXT SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ALL MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. NAM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS WAVE AND GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA. GFS TAKES MOST OF THIS ENERGY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GENERATES VERY LITTLE PRECIP OVER THE MPX
CWA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...
FELT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO HAVE 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
AND PUSH THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF STALL THIS FRONT OUT ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL MCS TYPE ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER FA IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING.
VIGOROUS WAVE LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE
THE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE.  THIS WILL MOVE
EAST AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHER TAF SITES/KAXN/KSTC/.  FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT EASTERN FA MAINLY AFTER 02Z...WITH ANOTHER
MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THICKNESS PROGS SHOULD MOVE ANY MCS MORE OFF INTO WI/IL LATE
TONIGHT.  EXPECT THINGS TO QUIET DOWN THEN LATER TONIGHT WITH FOG
POSSIBLE LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT SEE TRSA
THIS EVENING.  APPEARS NEXT WAVE/UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN FRIDAY.  COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS SHIFT MOVE
WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
230 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA GENERALLY
FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...TO RED
WING AND SOUTHWARD. THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA
INCLUDE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THIS AREA...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS IN PLACE BECAUSE OF A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TRACKING TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
828 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ054-190215-
LAC QUI PARLE-
828 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

AT 827 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALBEE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NASSAU.
  BELLINGHAM.
  MADISON.
  LOUISBURG.
  MARIETTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9645 4525 9632 4515 9606 4498 9583
      4496 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 254DEG 25KT 4505 9659

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
837 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ049-190215-
STEARNS-
837 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

AT 835 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF SAUK CENTRE
TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEDAN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUNBURG. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PADUA.
  ELROSA.
  MEIRE GROVE.
  MELROSE.
  ST ROSA.
  BROOTEN.
  SAUK CENTRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4577 9444 4562 9451 4541 9475 4542 9513
      4563 9512 4576 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 270DEG 24KT 4575 9508 4562 9512
          4545 9530

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