Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING TO UNFOLD ACROSS CWA AS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. THANKS TO MORNING MCS THAT WENT
ACROSS IOWA...SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE MESSY...BUT THERE IS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO THE TWIN CITIES AND OVER TO
EAU CLAIRE. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG IN WRN MN AND ALL GUIDANCE BUT NAM INCREASES
MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS SRN MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHEER
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH PRESSURE
FALLS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS ERN SODAK...THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKELY. ALOFT...SEEING TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA. THE FIRST IS
OVER SERN NODAK AND HAS HELPED KICK OFF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW CWA. ANOTHER WAVE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SRN SODAK AND HAS
HAD A FIELD OF ACCUS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALL DAY. AS THIS GETS INTO
THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IT SHOULD HELP LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS IT SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP SEEN ON THE
18Z SOUNDING FROM MPX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS OVER SE MN TONIGHT AS 20 TO 30 KT LLJ POKES UP FROM IOWA INTO
THAT AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS MN IN THE MORNING
AND BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG...WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THIS TIME SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE BEST
ACROSS SE MN AND WI. STORM CHANCES WILL WILL FINALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT. TO GO ALONG WITH WITH THE DRYING OUT...WARM UP
WILL BEGIN AND WILL START SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

NEXT SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ALL MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. NAM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS WAVE AND GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA. GFS TAKES MOST OF THIS ENERGY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GENERATES VERY LITTLE PRECIP OVER THE MPX
CWA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...
FELT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO HAVE 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
AND PUSH THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF STALL THIS FRONT OUT ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL MCS TYPE ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

CONCERN FOR ALL TAFS SITES IS WITH RPD CONVECTIVE DVLPMT NEXT SRVL
HRS. REMNANT CLDS FM MRNG CONVECTION ARE RPLY PEALING AWAY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO JUMP AND INSTAB TO INCRS IN SW MN. SFC WNDS HV ALSO COME
ARND TO THE SW IN SW MN. SATL IMAGERY SHWS SHRTWV MVG ACRS CNTL
SODAK WITH ACCAS DVLPG ALNG IT.  EXPECT TSTMS TO DVLP AHD OF THIS
FEATURE AND ALNG SFC BNDRY FM E SODAK INTO SW MN INTO NW AND CNTL IA
NEXT FEW HRS. WITH 850 MB JET TRANSLATING ACRS IA INTO SW WI DRNG
AFTN/EVE MCS DVLPMT N OF WRMFNT LOOKING PRETTY GUD...WHICH CUD
AFFECT MAINLY EAU.  MOST CONVECTION SHUD BE OVR BFR 01Z W CWA AND
06Z E TAF SITES.  WITH HIGH SFC DWPTS AND MOIST LOW LVL AMS..SM
STRATUS/FOG PSBL LT TNGHT. ANOTHER CHC SHWRS/TSTMS W TAF SITES BFR
18Z FRI AS UPR TROF MVS THRU.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
230 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA GENERALLY
FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...TO RED
WING AND SOUTHWARD. THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA
INCLUDE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THIS AREA...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS IN PLACE BECAUSE OF A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TRACKING TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ALEXANDRIA              45.87N 95.38W
06/18/2009                   DOUGLAS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FUNNELS DOWN AND UP IN CLOUD DID NOT TOUCH GROUND ALSO
            WITNESSED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             ALEXANDRIA              45.87N 95.38W
06/18/2009  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             NELSON                  45.88N 95.27W
06/18/2009  E0.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   POST OFFICE

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             OSAKIS                  45.87N 95.15W
06/18/2009  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   POST OFFICE

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             2 S OSAKIS              45.84N 95.15W
06/18/2009  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ048-049-182130-
POPE-STEARNS-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER POPE AND STEARNS COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF SEDAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GROVE LAKE.
  PADUA.
  ELROSA.
  SAUK CENTRE.
  MEIRE GROVE.
  MELROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4566 9422 4549 9520 4566 9529 4577 9496
      4578 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 249DEG 15KT 4561 9512

TRH