Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS IN SW/WC MN WHERE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED HAVE WARMED NICELY
LAST COUPLE HOURS.  SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 65 TO
70 DEGREE RANGE. SPC GENERATED 100 MB MLCAPE CURRENTLY AROUND 2000
J/KG INTO SW MN. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALSO PRESENT IN FAR E
DAKOTAS INTO FAR SW MN...THEN INTO NW IA. WOULD EXPECT THAT IF TSTMS
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA NEXT 2-3 HOURS IT WOULD BE THERE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH FM CENTRAL NEB
INTO W IA MAY HELP TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.  EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN PLUME OF INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEB/SODAK INTO S AND CENTRAL MN.  A WEAK
SHORTWAVE NOW APPROACHING W SODAK/W NEB SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO
GET CONVECTION GOING. THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SHOULD THEN BE A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
WARM FRONT ACROSS MO WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO PROGGED INTO THE
50-60
KNOT RANGE ACROSS S MN WITH MODERATE/HIGH SBCAPES.  SHOULD ALSO SEE
SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS S MN WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE. UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS AREA ON FRIDAY FINALLY CARRYING SURFACE TROF WHICH
HAS BEEN PARKED IN THE DAKOTAS THRU AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGH POPS THRU FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASE FROM W-E LATE FRIDAY/FRI
EVE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS AREA WILL BRING A WARM AND MAINLY
DRY WEEKEND.  SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTSM RETURNING TO W CWA LATE
SUNDAY AS RIDGE MOVES THRU AND TROFFING REDEVELOPS IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
DIFFICULT FORECAST...IN TRYING TO TIME THE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE TAF
SITES DURING THE PERIOD.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE OR WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THUS...ENGAGING AND
REKINDLING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLD SVR TSRA ARE PSBL
WITH THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  AREA OF
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHEAST MN...WILL
EXPAND OVER THE TAF SITES IN TSRA OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS IN GENL WILL
VARY FROM 3-5 THOUSAND FEET EXCEPT IN STRONG TSRA WHERE
CEILING/WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWERING BRIEFLY TO
IFR/MVFR TO CEILING AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY TO
AROUND 2 MILES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
623 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
623 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS REGION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS INITIATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE
DARK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA ON THURSDAY...AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA...AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. IF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE LIKELY...INCLUDING A RISK OF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...
SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
924 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TORNADO          GENEVA                  43.82N 93.27W
06/17/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONDENSATION FUNNEL CLOSE TO GROUND. DEBRIS CLOUD NOTED
            DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH. TREES DAMAGED ON EAST EDGE OF
            GENEVA.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
928 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             6 SSW WASECA            44.01N 93.55W
06/17/2009  E0.75 INCH       WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
943 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             3 NNW MAIDEN ROCK       44.61N 92.34W
06/17/2009  M0.75 INCH       PIERCE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
946 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     TORNADO          1 E WASECA              44.08N 93.48W
06/17/2009                   WASECA             MN   STORM CHASER

            TOUCHED DOWN ON CLEAR LAKE THEN MOVED ONSHORE. TREE DOWN
            BUT NO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

MNZ053-062-063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-180430-
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DUNN-EAU
CLAIRE-GOODHUE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RAMSEY-RUSK-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-
953 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 951 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MAIDEN ROCK. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
CONTAIN HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

PEOPLE IN BARRON...CHIPPEWA...DAKOTA...DUNN...EAU CLAIRE...GOODHUE...
PEPIN...PIERCE...POLK...RAMSEY...SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO...SOUTHERN
RUSK...ST. CROIX AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
MAIDEN ROCK...PLUM CITY...PORCUPINE...ELLA...ARKANSAW AND DURAND...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9091 4460 9092 4459 9201 4448 9205
      4444 9243 4436 9247 4436 9254 4421 9256
      4420 9304 4447 9304 4448 9316 4480 9330
      4489 9317 4496 9322 4512 9313 4513 9302
      4533 9302 4562 9287 4552 9085 4537 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 264DEG 26KT 4457 9223