Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WGUS83 KMPX 240001
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

MNC023-151-240012-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FA.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090324T0000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SWIFT MN-CHIPPEWA MN-
601 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CHIPPEWA AND SWIFT
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 700
PM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. IN 
ADDITION... LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT THE ICE JAM 
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PRESENT ALONG THE CHIPPEWA RIVER IN BENSON HAS 
CLEARED AND WATER IS FLOWING FREELY. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE 
WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE... ENDING THE 
IMMEDIATE FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE UPCOMING 12 TO 24 HOURS... SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING COULD 
TAKE PLACE IF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OCCURS. 

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED... PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THAT THEY FORWARD THE INFORMATION TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4540 9610 4540 9526 4491 9527 4490 9549
      4481 9550 4497 9581 4519 9611

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

A LITTLE TRICKY SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CURRENT
BATCH OF SOLID RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL MN AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATES THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS
WERE FORMING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST
IOWA. THIS WAS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE NE BUT POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTACT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. MORE DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER JET MOVES CURLS NE INTO
IA. A NEGATIVE TO MORE PERSISTENT RAINS WILL BE THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL LAYER THETA E ADVECTION AS WAS THE CASE TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE WATCH UPDATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS IA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WILL BRING BACK THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST MN AS THE UPPER JET MOVES IN. SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE SW
MN BUT MORE PRONOUNCED DIFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE JUST TO OUR SW.
THE NARROWING INSTABILITY AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER EASTERN CWA AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE FOR TUESDAY...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT A LITTLE EAST...BUT
KEEPING THE WINDS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
POSSIBLE SNOW STORM FOR SOME OF THE AREA. A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO
RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
CONSISTENCY FOR A LOW TO MOVE THROUGH IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST AHEAD AS DEEP SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING PERIOD.  SYSTEM GOES THROUGH
OCCLUSION PROCESS AS WELL...WITH THAT OCCURRING AFTER 00Z TUE.  WENT
GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SCT CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN FA THROUGH 18Z.  MENTIONED TSRA AT KRWF FOR A COUPLE HOURS
EARLY IN TAF...WITH CB AT KSTC AND KMSP THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE A BREAK
IN THE RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS EARLY AFTERNOON.  DO ANTICIPATE MORE
DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND SFC SYSTEM
OCCLUDES.  THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
AS THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.  MENTIONED A PROB30 -TSRA AT
KMSP DURING THE EVENING AS WELL...AS THIS OCCURS. LOW CEILINGS AND
RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF
THE FA INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED.  WIND SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FA AS SFC LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-
     LAC QUI PARLE-MEEKER-POPE-RENVILLE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-
     TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-
     WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241015-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
512 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE
POSSIBLE. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF
GRANITE FALLS AND MANKATO. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY.

ALL OF THE ADVERSE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

RUNOFF FROM THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE OTHER RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS TO RISE TO BANK FULL OR PERHAPS ABOVE BANK FULL THIS
WEEK.

RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...MAINLY WEST OF WILLMAR AND MORRIS.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1005 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE ST JOSEPH         45.56N 94.31W
03/23/2009  M3.50 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR

&&

DFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1114 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLOOD            8 S MARIETTA            44.89N 96.42W
03/23/2009                   LAC QUI PARLE      MN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THREE TOWNSHIP ROADS CLOSED.

1000 AM     FLOOD            WILLMAR                 45.12N 95.05W
03/23/2009                   KANDIYOHI          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME ROADS PARTIALLY COVERED IN WILLMAR. SOME LOW LYING
            TOWNSHIP ROADS NORTH OF WILLMAR COVERED WITH WATER.

1000 AM     FLOOD            BENSON                  45.32N 95.61W
03/23/2009                   SWIFT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ICE JAM AND DEBRIS UP AGAINST RAILROAD BRIDGE OVER
            CHIPPEWA RIVER IN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF BENSON. SOME
            WATER OVER A FEW TOWNSHIP ROADS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
            BENSON.

1000 AM     FLOOD            MILAN                   45.11N 95.91W
03/23/2009                   CHIPPEWA           MN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TOWNSHIP ROAD WASHED OUT NEAR MILAN. DRY WEATHER CREEK
            NORTH OF MONTEVIDEO RUNNING VERY HIGH.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 SW APPLETON           45.13N 96.12W
03/23/2009  M2.91 INCH       LAC QUI PARLE      MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KME