Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A LITTLE TRICKY SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CURRENT
BATCH OF SOLID RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL MN AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATES THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS
WERE FORMING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST
IOWA. THIS WAS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE NE BUT POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTACT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. MORE DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER JET MOVES CURLS NE INTO
IA. A NEGATIVE TO MORE PERSISTENT RAINS WILL BE THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL LAYER THETA E ADVECTION AS WAS THE CASE TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE WATCH UPDATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS IA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WILL BRING BACK THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST MN AS THE UPPER JET MOVES IN. SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE SW
MN BUT MORE PRONOUNCED DIFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE JUST TO OUR SW.
THE NARROWING INSTABILITY AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER EASTERN CWA AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE FOR TUESDAY...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT A LITTLE EAST...BUT
KEEPING THE WINDS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
POSSIBLE SNOW STORM FOR SOME OF THE AREA. A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO
RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
CONSISTENCY FOR A LOW TO MOVE THROUGH IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VERY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6/12 HRS AS A
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES FROM FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM. HOWEVER...SMALL SCALE FEATURES
AND SOME DRIER MID LEVELS RH FIELDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY
INHIBIT THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE LIGHTER
THEN EXPECTED AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...MY CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN THE FIRST 6 HRS FOR
MSP/EAU/RNH. RWF MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS/VSBY IF MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKS IT WAY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...AXN/STC SHOULD SEE THE WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF LIFR IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES HEAVIER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
SEE IF IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY (MONDAY)...BUT KEPT
WITH PERSISTENCE AFTER 12Z AS FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
...JLT...

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-
     LAC QUI PARLE-MEEKER-POPE-RENVILLE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-
     TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-
     WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
545 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
232245-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
545 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER WEST
CENTRAL...AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WIND SPEEDS
OF 30 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR MAINLY WESTERN
MINNESOTA.

SOME PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA MAY RECEIVE ENOUGH RAIN TONIGHT
TO CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
NEBRASKA TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS
TO RISE TO BANK FULL OR PERHAPS ABOVE BANK FULL THIS WEEK. THOSE
WITH HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA.

RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...MAINLY WEST OF WILLMAR AND MORRIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED...PLEASE REFER THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR SHERIFF OFFICIALS.

JLT