Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...STARTING OFF WITH CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THESE STORMS
WERE FORMING WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ZONE STRETCHES FROM THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH ON DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF...OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...FRONTAL
ZONE WILL EASE EASTWARD ALONG WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT
TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD POSSIBLY
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS IN SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES SUPPORT ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
SINCE MIDNIGHT...RADAR HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ZONES. CONSIDERING THIS...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM.

TONIGHT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS...FORECASTERS
ARE CALLING FOR LOWER CHANCES OF WET WEATHER WITH THE PREDOMINANT
CHARACTER BEING SHOWERS.  STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.
/10

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTS...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUESDAY AND
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.  A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING A MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. /11

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)ANOTHER FRONT...OR MAYBE THE
SAME ONE...MOVES SOUTH  LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI.
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING LOW POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
AFTERNOONS. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
A POP TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE
WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. /11

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CONVECTION TODAY WILL BRING A MIX OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. STORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH TSTMS
LOOK TO BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA AFT 00Z...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFT 06Z WITH POTENTIAL OF PATCHY BR AS WELL. /10

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE INDICATE A STRONG ONSHORE INFLOW COMPONENT AND
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SEAS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND BUT MAY COME UP ANOTHER FOOT OR SO THAN
CURRENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  68  84  69 /  80  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   81  70  83  70 /  70  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  70  80  71 /  70  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   80  65  85  65 /  90  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  80  63  85  66 /  80  20  20  10
CAMDEN      79  64  85  65 /  80  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-050800-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
300 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNRISE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAINLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO POSE A
HAZARD IN THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN BRIEF PERIODS OF FLOODING OVER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDENTS
ARE URGED TO SET WEATHER RADIOS TO TONE ALERT TO RECEIVE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT THIS MORNING.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
156 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

MSZ067-040800-
WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBORO...
156 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO AFFECT WAYNE COUNTY...

AT 154 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARA TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF CLARA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WAYNESBORO...WINCHESTER...ROBINSON JUNCTION...BUCKATUNNA...BATTLES
AND DENHAM THROUGH 300 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
LOCALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO
GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
219 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-040815-
WASHINGTON-CLARKE-CHOCTAW-WAYNE-
219 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO AFFECT
WASHINGTON...CLARKE...CHOCTAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 216 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3 MILES WEST OF SOUWILPA TO 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BATTLES...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
AQUILLA...BATTLES...SOUWILPA...BOLINGER...SILAS AND BARRYTOWN THROUGH
315 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF
PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.
THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.