Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1101 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

.UPDATED...UPDATED PUBLIC PACKAGE TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH FOR
STONE...GEORGE...AND GREENE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. FLOOD WATCH
AREA AND QPF UNCHANGED SO FAR.

***********************PREVIOUS***********************

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...STARTING OFF WITH CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THESE STORMS
WERE FORMING WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ZONE STRETCHES FROM THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH ON DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF...OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...FRONTAL
ZONE WILL EASE EASTWARD ALONG WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT
TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD POSSIBLY
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS IN SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES SUPPORT ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
SINCE MIDNIGHT...RADAR HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ZONES. CONSIDERING THIS...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM.

TONIGHT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS...FORECASTERS
ARE CALLING FOR LOWER CHANCES OF WET WEATHER WITH THE PREDOMINANT
CHARACTER BEING SHOWERS.  STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.
/10

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTS...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUESDAY AND
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.  A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING A MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. /11

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)ANOTHER FRONT...OR MAYBE THE
SAME ONE...MOVES SOUTH  LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI.
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING LOW POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
AFTERNOONS. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
A POP TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE
WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. /11

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z ISSUANCE...CONVECTION TODAY WILL BRING A MIX OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. STORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH TSTMS
LOOK TO BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA AFT 00Z...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFT 06Z WITH POTENTIAL OF PATCHY BR AS WELL. /10

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE INDICATE A STRONG ONSHORE INFLOW COMPONENT AND
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SEAS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND BUT MAY COME UP ANOTHER FOOT OR SO THAN
CURRENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  68  84  69 /  80  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   81  70  83  70 /  70  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  70  80  71 /  70  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   80  65  85  65 /  90  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  80  63  85  66 /  80  20  20  10
CAMDEN      79  64  85  65 /  80  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD EXPECTED SURF ZONE CONDITIONS IN DAY ONE

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-051100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN A THREE
TO FIVE HOUR TIME FRAME...WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THESE TYPES OF RAINS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF FLOODING OVER LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDENTS
ARE URGED TO SET WEATHER RADIOS TO TONE ALERT TO RECEIVE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A MODERATE
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
731 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     TSTM WND GST     EVERGREEN               31.43N 86.96W
05/04/2009  M59 MPH          CONECUH            AL   ASOS

            51 KNOTS/59 MPH PEAK TSTM WIND GUST OBSERVED.

&&

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
858 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

ALZ057-058-060-041445-
COVINGTON-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUVERNE...
858 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
COVINGTON...SOUTHEAST BUTLER AND SOUTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES...

AT 855 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PIGEON CREEK TO 5 MILES WEST
OF CLEARVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PIGEON CREEK...CLEARVIEW...RUTLEDGE...DOZIER...LUVERNE AND BRANTLEY
THROUGH 945 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

PURDY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1006 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

ALZ061-063-041615-
UPPER MOBILE-LOWER MOBILE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAUPHIN ISLAND AND DOWNTOWN MOBILE...
1006 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOBILE COUNTY THROUGH
NOON...

AT 1001 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES WEST OF TANNER WILLIAMS TO
50 MILES WEST OF GRAND BAY...MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MOFFET...BIG CREEK LAKE...WILMER...BIG CREEK LAKE DAM...SEMMES AND
LOTT AND COLEMAN DAIRY RO THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...AND POINTS EAST
THEREAFTER.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG
COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES PER
HOUR...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH
LATER. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE
DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

ALZ064-FLZ001>004-006-041800-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL
OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BALDWIN...OKALOOSA...
ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 1210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAY SPRINGS TO
13 MILES WEST OF BEULAH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MCDAVID...MOLINO...CHUMUCKLA...PACE...ENSLEY AND BELLVIEW THROUGH 100
PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
117 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

FLZ002>006-041900-
INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW...DESTIN...FORT WALTON BEACH AND
NAVARRE...
117 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND
SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

AT 116 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAROLD TO 3
MILES WEST OF NAVARRE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
NAVARRE...GALLIVER...HOLT AND MILLIGAN THROUGH 200 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.