River Flood Warning 68, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...RADAR IMAGERY TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PREVAILING WEATHER LOOKS TO IMPACT KPNS TO START THE
12Z ISSUANCE. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE
THERE...AS WEATHER MOVES ACROSS. LATEST OBS SUGGEST THE FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT TO OCCUR AT MOB AROUND 13Z AND AT BFM AROUND 14Z. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE THRU
18Z. CIGS AND VSBYS OK AFTER 00Z. /10

...........................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES HAVE RESULTED IN OVER WASH
AND FLOODING OVER SEVERAL ROADS OVER COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY. TIDE
DATA SHOWS UPWARDS OF AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. GIVEN
THE OBSERVED...REPORTS OF FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES...FORECASTERS
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH COASTAL MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES THRU 15Z=>10 AM CDT. WE WILL BE MOVING OFF OF HIGH
TIDES BY SUNRISE AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL AXIS...WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER IN STRENGTH.
THUS...COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO
OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR MOBILE...BETWEEN
12 AND 18Z AND THEN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
MORNING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH LATEST GRIDDED DATA SHOWING A
DECREASING COVERAGE BY THE AFTN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MORNING
SHWRS/OR TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO
45 MPH. ANTICIPATING WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS H85 TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
SUNRISE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE TODAY
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT. /10

[SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...A FABULOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD
FRONT. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE WE EXPERIENCED LAST
WEEK. STILL...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS COMPLICATED AND VERY UNCERTAIN. THE
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS ON MONDAY. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER PIECE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA...THERE
ARE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS UP A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WHICH ORIGINATES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFS
RECOGNIZES THIS FEATURE BUT KEEPS IT SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE JUST HAD A FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...CANNOT
COMPLETELY BUY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
MONDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW
UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
FOR MON/MON NIGHT.

SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER FOR TUE AND WED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS BRINGS THIS TROUGH EAST ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION UNTIL THE LATEST 00Z RUN. THIS RUN NOW
CUTS OFF THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND IT DOES NOT EJECT EAST
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING DELAYED UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS ALSO JUMPED ONTO THIS SOLUTION.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A MIXED BAG...SOME MEMBERS RESEMBLING THE GFS
WHILE ABOUT HALF LEAN TOWARD THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. GIVEN ALL OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY SHOW LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THU/FRI WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BACK TOWARD CLIMO. ADMITTEDLY...TEMPS WILL EITHER TURN OUT
TO BE ABOVE OR BELOW CLIMO BY FRIDAY...BUT JUST DO NOT HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE TO LEAN ONE PARTICULAR WAY. INITIAL FEELING IS THAT THE
ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING CONSIDERING THE SUPPORT IT HAS FROM THE
CANADIAN AND HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES. WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...WILL HOLD ON TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH 11 AM...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND
SHIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MARINE SHWRS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES EASTWARD OUT OF EAST TEXAS WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TRENDING
LOWER AND SEAS SUBSIDING. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS FORECAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL
DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (GENERALLY MIDDLE 30 TO LOWER 40 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON). 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  49  69  44 /  30  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   80  53  70  49 /  50  05  05  05
DESTIN      78  60  72  54 /  60  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   77  50  69  42 /  50  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  72  47  68  40 /  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      75  50  68  41 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-241200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
530 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH TIDES...HAVE RESULTED IN
TIDAL RISES OF NEAR 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED TIDE LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH...WE ARE MOVING OFF OF HIGH TIDE AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE AS THE AXIS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SEVERAL ROADS OVER
COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTY COULD HAVE LINGERING FLOODING
PROBLEMS THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THE RISK
OF A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE OF SUCH IS IS LOW. AS A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS TODAY...THE BEST COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AND THEN IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A HAZARD TO MARINERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
926 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

ALZ060-231515-
COVINGTON-
926 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COVINGTON COUNTY...

AT 925 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF LOCKHART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LOCKHART...FLORALA...WATKINS BRIDGE...STEDMAN...RED OAK AND HOWELLS
THROUGH 1015 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.