Coastal Flood Warning 2, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS DOWN. PRECIP
BECOMING LESS AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS DRIVING UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE
AWAY NORTHEAST.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z/18Z ISSUANCE)PRECIP OVER AREA LOSING IS PUNCH AS
UPPER DRIVING DYNAMIC PULL AWAY NORTHEAST. SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
MISS RIVER ATTM. WITH WINDS SETTLING ONSHORE...LOW CIGS/FOG WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT. FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO START MOVING OVER THE FA
BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-232300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
630 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY NORTH ACROSS THE
MOBILE RIVER DELTA WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING
AS THE AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST.

A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AROUND 7 PM AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE MOBILE
METRO AREA AROUND 9 PM. THIS SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST AND AFFECTING THE WEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND AREAS TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE STORM OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...PRIMARILY CLOSE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT.  STRONGER STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A NEW AUGUSTA MISSISSIPPI TO EVERGREEN ALABAMA LINE LATER
TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MOVE ACROSS THAT
REGION.   HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LASTING...HOWEVER
SOME LOCALIZED NUSIANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE MORE THAN A FEW ROUNDS OF BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT
THEN WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

WATER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MOBILE BAY AND THE GULF
FACING BEACHES WILL RUN 1 1/2 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...PEAKING AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS
SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED...BUT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING
AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE BEACHES AND SHORE LINE IS
ENCOURAGED.