Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 190646
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
146 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIC045-105-127-190656-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-090619T0645Z/
GREEN WI-ROCK WI-WALWORTH WI-
146 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WALWORTH...ROCK AND EASTERN
GREEN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 145 AM CDT...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEAR TO BE SEVERE...THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4258 8967 4285 8902 4284 8895 4271 8830
      4249 8831 4249 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 288DEG 52KT 4297 8953 4273 9001

$$

WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.UPDATE...

LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO INCREASE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 01 AND 06Z.  STRONG CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS AFTER 02Z.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
INCREASES. WE ARE IN LEFT EXIT REGION INITIALLY...BUT EXIT REGION
PUSHES EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS MAINLY ACCAS TYPE ECHOES WEST AND SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN RESPONSE TO THE
ABOVE TRENDS.

RUC SOUNDINGS NEAR LONE ROCK AT 04Z SHOW CAPE AROUND 2600
J/KG...EHI AROUND 7 AND BRN AROUND 16...INDICATIVE OF DEVELOPING
SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING A TORNADO POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER CAP IS
STILL AN ISSUE WITH CIN OF 91 J/KG. CAPE RISES TO 3000 J/KG BY
06Z WITH BRN AT 36.

THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON.

&&

HENTZ

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

TONIGHT...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AREA
WHICH HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND IS FOUND AT NOSE OF
850 JET. THESE MODELS THEN MOVE THIS COMPLEX...WITH SHORT
EMBEDDED LINES AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELLS...EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WOULD EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CAPE...AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THRU WI AND SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH...ALONG WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE...TO RESULT IN MORE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER WISCONSIN WITH DRIER AIR FEEDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND SOME RETURN WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT AND UPSTAIRS SUPPORT.

AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS WEAKENED AS THEY CROSSED INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TODAY...LEAVING ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL LATER AFTER
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FOR NOW...EXPECTING STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS LIKELY WITHIN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND UNTIL WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06
AVIATION/MARINE...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
818 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-192045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
818 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARKESAN TO MILWAUKEE...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THAT LINE. LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FURTHER NORTH...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-192045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
818 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO MILD AND MOIST
AIR FLOWING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTH...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

BORGHOFF
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GREENFIELD              42.96N 88.01W
06/19/2009  M1.30 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING OVER CURB AT 97TH ST BETWEEN OKLAHOMA AND
            BELOIT

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1231 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW MADISON            43.03N 89.45W
06/19/2009  M1.39 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E MADISON             43.08N 89.36W
06/19/2009                   DANE               WI   PUBLIC

            PARTS OF EAST WASHINGTON ST UNDER WATER

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDDLETON               43.10N 89.51W
06/19/2009                   DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF TREE BRANCHES DOWN...SOME LARGE...ANYWHERE
            FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF DANE COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH THE
            WEST SIDE OF MADISON AND THE MIDDLETON AREA. TIME IS
            ESTIMATED BASED ON SPOTTER RECOLLECTION AND RADAR DATA.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW STONE BANK        43.16N 88.42W
06/19/2009                   WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FLOODING OVER ROADS

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DODGEVILLE              42.96N 90.13W
06/18/2009                   IOWA               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE
            HIGHLAND...DODGEVILLE...EAST OF MINERAL POINT...AND
            BLACKHAWK STATE PARK AREAS. TIME IS APPROXIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

LAMERS