Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 190521
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIC025-027-055-131-133-190600-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090619T0600Z/
DODGE WI-WASHINGTON WI-WAUKESHA WI-JEFFERSON WI-DANE WI-
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DANE...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN WAUKESHA...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

AT 1218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ASHIPPUN TO PIPERSVILLE TO
DEERFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HOLY HILL...MONTEREY...MAPLETON AND LAC LA BELLE BY 1225 AM CDT...
STONE BANK...NORTH LAKE...OKAUCHEE LAKE AND OCONOMOWOC LAKE BY 1230
AM CDT...
HELENVILLE AND SULLIVAN BY 1235 AM CDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 4298 8844 4290 8875 4321 8942 4330 8889
      4344 8864 4317 8806 4310 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 309DEG 28KT 4326 8845 4312 8865
          4305 8907

$$

WOOD

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 190600
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIC025-027-055-131-133-190608-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090619T0600Z/
DODGE WI-WASHINGTON WI-WAUKESHA WI-JEFFERSON WI-DANE WI-
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DANE...
JEFFERSON...NORTHERN WAUKESHA...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN
DODGE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 100 AM CDT...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA...THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING 
FOR JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES...AND LOCATIONS TO 
THE SOUTH.

LAT...LON 4298 8844 4290 8875 4321 8942 4330 8889
      4344 8864 4317 8806 4310 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 294DEG 21KT 4317 8816 4303 8836
          4296 8878

$$

WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.UPDATE...

LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO INCREASE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 01 AND 06Z.  STRONG CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS AFTER 02Z.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
INCREASES. WE ARE IN LEFT EXIT REGION INITIALLY...BUT EXIT REGION
PUSHES EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS MAINLY ACCAS TYPE ECHOES WEST AND SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN RESPONSE TO THE
ABOVE TRENDS.

RUC SOUNDINGS NEAR LONE ROCK AT 04Z SHOW CAPE AROUND 2600
J/KG...EHI AROUND 7 AND BRN AROUND 16...INDICATIVE OF DEVELOPING
SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING A TORNADO POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER CAP IS
STILL AN ISSUE WITH CIN OF 91 J/KG. CAPE RISES TO 3000 J/KG BY
06Z WITH BRN AT 36.

THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OCCURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON.

&&

HENTZ

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

TONIGHT...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AREA
WHICH HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND IS FOUND AT NOSE OF
850 JET. THESE MODELS THEN MOVE THIS COMPLEX...WITH SHORT
EMBEDDED LINES AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELLS...EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WOULD EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CAPE...AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THRU WI AND SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH...ALONG WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE...TO RESULT IN MORE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER WISCONSIN WITH DRIER AIR FEEDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND SOME RETURN WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT AND UPSTAIRS SUPPORT.

AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS WEAKENED AS THEY CROSSED INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TODAY...LEAVING ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL LATER AFTER
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FOR NOW...EXPECTING STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS LIKELY WITHIN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND UNTIL WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06
AVIATION/MARINE...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
818 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-192045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
818 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARKESAN TO MILWAUKEE...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THAT LINE. LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FURTHER NORTH...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-192045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
818 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO MILD AND MOIST
AIR FLOWING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTH...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

BORGHOFF
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             WAUNAKEE                43.19N 89.45W
06/18/2009  E0.25 INCH       DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER INCH HAIL...ALSO FLOODING OVER CURB

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1147 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     HAIL             DODGEVILLE              42.96N 90.13W
06/18/2009  M0.25 INCH       IOWA               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED...ALSO EST 50 MPH WINDS

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1148 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     HAIL             1 SE MILWAUKEE TIMMERMA 43.11N 88.04W
06/18/2009  M0.25 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     HAIL             2 WNW DODGEVILLE        42.97N 90.17W
06/18/2009  M1.00 INCH       IOWA               WI   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
            HAIL

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEWAUKEE                43.09N 88.25W
06/18/2009  E50 MPH          WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DODGEVILLE              42.96N 90.13W
06/18/2009                   IOWA               WI   STORM CHASER

            MOVING WATER UP TO A FOOT DEEP THROUGH DODGEVILLE
            STREETS.

&&

LAMERS