River Flood Warning 54, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ON MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM IS OBVIOUSLY THIS EVENING. THE FINAL IN
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LATE THIS WEEK IS EVIDENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AT 19Z.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MORNING/S MCS HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY RAPIDLY RECOVERING ACROSS ERN IA AND SWRN WI. VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS JUST BEGUN OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE BEST CAPE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI
THIS EVENING. BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME OR REMAIN SEVERE
AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.

THE 00Z 3KM ARW WRF REFLECTIVITY DISPLAYED THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MORNING MCS ALMOST PERFECTLY...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. THAT MODEL EXPLODES CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 22Z
AND I HAVE A HARD TIME NOT BELIEVING IT. THE NAM QPF FIELDS ARE NOT
REALLY RELIABLE GIVEN WHAT CURRENTLY IS HAPPENING...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CLOSER. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS WORDING IN THE NORTH.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES WERE
REPORTED LAST NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. BACKBUILDING STORMS WITH MBE VELOCITIES OF 5-15
KNOTS...INCREASING 850 MB JET POINTED TOWARD CWA AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET CENTERED OVER THE CWA...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES /170 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL/...AND A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH OF ALMOST 14KFT ALL SUPPORT A SERIOUS THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HACKED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MILWAUKEE COUNTY NOW BEING 1.7 INCHES WITHIN 6
HOURS AND 1.0 INCH IN ONE HOUR. IF ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES FALL ON
THOSE SAME FAVORED AREAS...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CAN BE
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. NO COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 22C...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME CAPE IS PRESENT DURING THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL THEN KICK EAST BY MONDAY AND THE HEAT BEGINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY
WARM OR HOT WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERMAL RIDGE WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. I PREFERRED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS
WHAT HPC FAVORED AS WELL. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE PERIODICALLY
WITH MCS FORMATION...BUT I BELIEVE IT WILL BE TOO CAPPED AND ANY
MCS/S WILL RIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THICKNESSES AROUND
580 DAM AND HEIGHTS APPROACH 588. NAM...DGEX...AND ECMWF 2 M TEMPS
ALREADY RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE 26-28C
RANGE. WITH LITTLE WIND TO WIC HEAT FROM THE SURFACE /CAUSING SUPER
ADIABATIC PROFILE/...COULD SEE SOME MID 90S IN PLACES. WEAK FLOW
WILL PROMOTE THE LAKE BREEZE EACH DAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LAKE WATER WARMS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE WARMER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AS SHOWN IN 2 M TEMPS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY SIMILAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREA/FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME IFR
IN THE MORE INTENSE TSTORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...EXPECT A FEW VFR CLOUDS DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING ON SAT. WINDS ALONG THE LAKE
MAY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...18 BORGHOFF
AVIATION/MARINE...13 MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-210100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SPRING GREEN TO WAUNAKEE TO WATERTOWN AND GLENDALE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-210100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY 2 AM.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET CAUSE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
830 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WALWORTH                42.53N 88.60W
06/19/2009                   WALWORTH           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME FAST MOVING WATERS FLOWING OVER COUNTY ROADS IN THE
            TOWNSHIP OF WALWORTH.

&&

LAMERS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.96N 87.90W
06/19/2009  M3.65 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   ASOS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW GLARUS              42.81N 89.63W
06/19/2009  M4.12 INCH       GREEN              WI   MESONET

            24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RACINE                  42.73N 87.78W
06/19/2009  M6.93 INCH       RACINE             WI   MESONET

            CW1057 APRS 24 HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

CRAVEN

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