River Flood Warning 51, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ON MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM IS OBVIOUSLY THIS EVENING. THE FINAL IN
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LATE THIS WEEK IS EVIDENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AT 19Z.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MORNING/S MCS HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY RAPIDLY RECOVERING ACROSS ERN IA AND SWRN WI. VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS JUST BEGUN OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE BEST CAPE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI
THIS EVENING. BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME OR REMAIN SEVERE
AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.

THE 00Z 3KM ARW WRF REFLECTIVITY DISPLAYED THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MORNING MCS ALMOST PERFECTLY...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. THAT MODEL EXPLODES CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 22Z
AND I HAVE A HARD TIME NOT BELIEVING IT. THE NAM QPF FIELDS ARE NOT
REALLY RELIABLE GIVEN WHAT CURRENTLY IS HAPPENING...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CLOSER. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS WORDING IN THE NORTH.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES WERE
REPORTED LAST NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. BACKBUILDING STORMS WITH MBE VELOCITIES OF 5-15
KNOTS...INCREASING 850 MB JET POINTED TOWARD CWA AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET CENTERED OVER THE CWA...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES /170 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL/...AND A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH OF ALMOST 14KFT ALL SUPPORT A SERIOUS THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HACKED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MILWAUKEE COUNTY NOW BEING 1.7 INCHES WITHIN 6
HOURS AND 1.0 INCH IN ONE HOUR. IF ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES FALL ON
THOSE SAME FAVORED AREAS...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CAN BE
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. NO COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 22C...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME CAPE IS PRESENT DURING THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL THEN KICK EAST BY MONDAY AND THE HEAT BEGINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY
WARM OR HOT WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERMAL RIDGE WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. I PREFERRED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS
WHAT HPC FAVORED AS WELL. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE PERIODICALLY
WITH MCS FORMATION...BUT I BELIEVE IT WILL BE TOO CAPPED AND ANY
MCS/S WILL RIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THICKNESSES AROUND
580 DAM AND HEIGHTS APPROACH 588. NAM...DGEX...AND ECMWF 2 M TEMPS
ALREADY RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE 26-28C
RANGE. WITH LITTLE WIND TO WIC HEAT FROM THE SURFACE /CAUSING SUPER
ADIABATIC PROFILE/...COULD SEE SOME MID 90S IN PLACES. WEAK FLOW
WILL PROMOTE THE LAKE BREEZE EACH DAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LAKE WATER WARMS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE WARMER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AS SHOWN IN 2 M TEMPS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY SIMILAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREA/FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME IFR
IN THE MORE INTENSE TSTORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...EXPECT A FEW VFR CLOUDS DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING ON SAT. WINDS ALONG THE LAKE
MAY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...18 BORGHOFF
AVIATION/MARINE...13 MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-201900-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
335 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SPRING GREEN TO WAUNAKEE TO WATERTOWN AND GLENDALE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-201900-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
335 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PLEASANT PRAIRIE    42.52N 87.93W
06/19/2009                   KENOSHA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES

&&

CEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIZ063>065-068>070-200015-
DANE-GREEN-JEFFERSON-ROCK-WALWORTH-WAUKESHA-
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 39 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WHITEWATER TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS FROM ROCKFORD EAST TO WOODSTOCK AND MCHENRY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SHARON BY 700 PM CDT...
  BELOIT BY 705 PM CDT...
  CLINTON BY 710 PM CDT...
  DARIEN AND JANESVILLE AIRPORT BY 715 PM CDT...

IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR ROCK AND WALWORTH COUNTIES.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BRANCHES AND A TREE OR TWO TO BE BLOWN DOWN...
AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
638 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT PRAIRIE        42.55N 87.93W
06/19/2009  M1.00 INCH       KENOSHA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            I94 NEAR STH 165...ALSO WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH

&&

CEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
649 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

WIZ052-058>060-063>066-200045-
DANE-DODGE-JEFFERSON-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-SHEBOYGAN-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
649 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA
COUNTIES...

AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON TO 4 MILES WEST OF OKAUCHEE LAKE TO FORT ATKINSON...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MERTON BY 655 PM CDT...
  SAUKVILLE AND HARTLAND BY 700 PM CDT...
  PORT WASHINGTON AND LAPHAM PEAK STATE PARK BY 705 PM CDT...
  MEQUON AND WALES BY 710 PM CDT...
  WAUKESHA AIRPORT BY 715 PM CDT...
  MILWAUKEE TIMMERMAN AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN WAUKESHA BY 720 PM CDT...
  GLENDALE AND WAUWATOSA BY 725 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BRANCHES AND A TREE OR TWO TO BE BLOWN DOWN...
AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
650 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KENOSHA                 42.58N 87.82W
06/19/2009                   KENOSHA            WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER UP TO WINDOWS OF CAR...STREETS FLOODED

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
651 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PLEASANT PRAIRIE        42.55N 87.93W
06/19/2009                   KENOSHA            WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREETS FLOODED

&&

CEO