Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED ALONG 130W...WEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW ONLY MOVING AROUND 150 MILES TO
THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WILL RELY ON SATELLITE FOR WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THEN NORTHWEST TO
THE CASCADES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER TO THE CASCADES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE SUNDAY SO ONCE AGAIN THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REGION. BY MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WE CONTEND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE
GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE LOW TO BE JUST INSIDE 130W AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF MOVING THE LOW INLAND LATE THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LOW
INLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INLAND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LIGHTNING IN
ORZ616-ORZ617-ORZ620-ORZ621-ORZ622-ORZ623-ORZ624-ORZ625.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ORZ624-ORZ625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

RH/BL/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
426 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

ORZ029>031-020600-
KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
426 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT TONIGHT FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS THEN IN
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGES FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ023>028-020600-
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
426 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

ORZ027-030-012330-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY OR-SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OR-
353 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM PDT...

AT 351 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHEMULT...OR
29 MILES EAST OF CRATER LAKE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZED OR ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHEMULT AND HIGHWAY 97 NEAR
CHEMULT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4326 12191 4339 12138 4303 12136 4286 12164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 162DEG 7KT 4289 12157

BTL