Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
830 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON BEFORE DYING
OUT THERE AND SHIFTING INTO JACKSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK WEST OF
THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED ALONG 130W...WEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW ONLY MOVING AROUND 150 MILES TO
THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE SUNDAY SO ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REGION. BY MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WE CONTEND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE
GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE LOW TO BE JUST INSIDE 130W AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF MOVING THE LOW INLAND LATE THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LOW
INLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INLAND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LIGHTNING IN
ORZ616-ORZ617-ORZ620-ORZ621-ORZ622-ORZ623-ORZ624-ORZ625.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ORZ624-ORZ625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

RH/BL/DG/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
426 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

ORZ029>031-020600-
KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
426 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT TONIGHT FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS THEN IN
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGES FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ023>028-020600-
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
426 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
709 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             1 WSW WILLIAMS          42.21N 123.29W
08/01/2009  M0.75 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.

0640 PM     HAIL             MEDFORD                 42.34N 122.85W
08/01/2009  M0.75 INCH       JACKSON            OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

0640 PM     HAIL             MEDFORD                 42.34N 122.85W
08/01/2009  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

WOODHEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
714 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             1 E CENTRAL POINT       42.37N 122.89W
08/01/2009  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

WOODHEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
718 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION CREEK             42.91N 122.44W
08/01/2009                   JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

            SMALL TREE WAS BLOWN OVER AND INITIALLY BLOCKING ROADWAY.
            FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
            OBSERVED. POWER WAS OUT TO THE TOWN.

&&

WOODHEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
738 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 ENE EAGLE POINT       42.48N 122.75W
08/01/2009  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOODHEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
826 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S SHADY COVE          42.57N 122.81W
08/01/2009  M1.25 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN BEGAN FALLING AT 1855 PDT AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
            FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

WOODHEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             EAGLE POINT             42.47N 122.80W
08/01/2009  M1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

&&

WOODHEAD