Special Marine Warning 521, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
558 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

.AVIATION...S FLA IN VRY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND AMPLE SHRA/WDLY
SCT TSRA (ATTM) MAINLY OVER GULF WATERS MOVG N NE ONTO THE SW FLA
COAST. ACTIVITY WL SPREAD/DVLP OVER THE AREA WITH INTMT MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WNDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS SE 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20+ E COAST BCMG S
15 TO 20 KTS GUSTS 25+ KTS AFT 16Z. BY 00Z WNDS SW E COAST AND
WNW KAPF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009/

UPDATE...
A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT. RECENT REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FOR ROAD CLOSURES THAT
CONTINUE...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLOOD WARNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
DIGGING IN BEHIND IT. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS
MORNING WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
TODAY AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH
FLORIDA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE LOCAL HELICITY AND THE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR COULD BE FAVORABLE AND WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISOLATED DAMAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS WITH ROTATION
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR WATERSPOUTS. THE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBABLY MOST LIKELY IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE NOT SUPPORTIVE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
JUST ISSUED A STATEMENT SAYING THAT A TORNADO WATCH BEING ISSUED
IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DYNAMICS DO NOT FULLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AFTER OOZ SATURDAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO EXIT NORTH FLORIDA...RAPID CLEARING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
IS EXPECTED.

THE CURRENT FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS THAT WERE ISSUED EARLIER WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE THE HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE MOVED JUST OFF
SHORE. IF WARRANTED...ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
REACHING NEAR THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR IN NORTHWEST
GLADES COUNTY...WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE REACHING THE MID 30S.
THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE METRO AREAS COULD BE NEAR THE UPPER
40S. NEED TO STRESS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...THERE WILL BE MORE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WE CLOSER TO
THAT PERIOD.

MARINE...
IN ADDITION TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 22 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. A GALE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS...MAINLY
FOR FREQUENT GUST EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  60  71  49 / 90 40 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  60  75  53 / 90 40 10 10
MIAMI            81  64  75  54 / 90 40 10 10
NAPLES           76  63  70  53 / 90 20 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ610-AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR

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