Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
EMERGING INTO THE WESTERN GOFMEX INDUCING SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST GOFMEX AND THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG OR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SO IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET SOME ROTATING CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST GOFMEX PRIOR TO 12Z FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT THE DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH.
THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE SE FL COAST
BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM A LITTLE SLOWER BUT MOST OF THE
WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR THE PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
INTO A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO HAVE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT WILL ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE
BUT ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ONLY AROUND A 5 TO 10 DEGREE SPREAD
IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. AT ANY
RATE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY GIVING OUR REGION NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
AND CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE FELT
WITH MINIMUMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTHWEST INTERIOR NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODIFY INTO THE MIDDLE OF CHRISTMAS WEEK AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FROM
OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
THE PLAINS STATES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERING EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
SHOWED A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
STATES BY THURSDAY AND NOW THE 12Z RUN IS SHOWING A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALL ZONES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCT/NMRS SHRA. WILL MAKE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND INTRODUCE VCTS AT APF AFTER 09Z...AND AT REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM E-ESE-SE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS DUE TO WIND SURGE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE ROUGH
MARINE CONDITIONS THERE BEFORE WIND VEERS TO THE SE AND SEAS
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  79  60  73 / 70 80 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  80  60  74 / 70 80 50 10
MIAMI            73  81  65  75 / 70 80 50 10
NAPLES           68  76  64  70 / 70 80 20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ651-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ670.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-180000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
348 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT...
...WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MAINLY ON FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS
FORECAST TO START LIFTING BACK UP NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY
OR TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG
WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS PROGRESS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
STARTING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WIND: THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A FEW STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR GREATER MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS AS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY APPROACH SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE GULF BY THEN.

TORNADOES: THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR A REMOTE CHANCE OF MAINLY
WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL
SPREAD ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES
AS WELL AS MAINLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS A CONCERN AT THE PRESENT
TIME FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING DEPENDING
IF THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WEBSITE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PS/CC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
453 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

FLZ168-172-172230-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
453 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS BOCA RATON...

AT 451 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HILLSBORO BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

BOCA RATON...
HILLSBORO BEACH...
DEERFIELD BEACH...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2638 8007 2635 8007 2634 8007 2629 8007
      2628 8007 2626 8010 2635 8011 2639 8007
      2639 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 070DEG 7KT 2632 8007

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

FLZ173-172345-
COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
625 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY WITH A WATERSPOUT MOVING ACROSS
SOLDIER KEY...

AT 621 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT
PARK...VERY NEAR SOLDIER KEY MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

  SOLDIER KEY...
  SANDS KEY...
  NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ELLIOT KEY...

AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING A WATERSPOUT... BOATERS
AND CAMPERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION.

LAT...LON 2549 8017 2547 8019 2547 8020 2548 8020
      2549 8019 2551 8020 2553 8018 2553 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 085DEG 5KT 2551 8017

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

FLZ172-180000-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
639 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS FORT LAUDERDALE AND HOLLYWOOD...

AT 636 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORT EVERGLADES...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

PORT EVERGLADES...
FORT LAUDERDALE...
HOLLYWOOD...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER
ISLANDS.

LAT...LON 2601 8011 2600 8011 2599 8014 2613 8014
      2613 8010 2610 8011 2606 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 089DEG 7KT 2607 8009

TINGLER