Gale Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

542 
WHUS72 KMFL 201045
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...GALE WARNING FOR PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING... 
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10 AM EST
TODAY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY... 
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE WATERS UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS UNTIL 1 AM EST 
WEDNESDAY...

AMZ610-201845-
/O.CAN.KMFL.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T0600Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
545 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BRINGING
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ650-670-201845-
/O.EXT.KMFL.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090120T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
545 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING, WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECT THE PALM
BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 7 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ651-671-201845-
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
545 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND
BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ630-GMZ656-657-676-201845-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T0600Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BRINGING
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

659 
WHUS72 KMFL 201455
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
955 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

AMZ650-670-202100-
/O.CAN.KMFL.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090120T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
955 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
EST WEDNESDAY. 

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 7 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ651-671-202100-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
955 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY AND BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ610-630-GMZ656-657-676-202100-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090121T0600Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
955 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.

SEAS IN TEH GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

70/DD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
901 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...COLD AIR STILL ON THE WAY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...
A 50 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS JET WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AND BE EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
JET WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND
ALONG THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TO INCREASE TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AT THE SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SUNSHINE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED, SO HAVE LOWER THE
POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE CWA BEFORE GOING DRY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...DUE TO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALLOWING FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE GULF.

.MARINE...
THE LOW LEVEL JET MENTION ABOVE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. REST OF THE CWA WATERS WILL REMAIN AT THE
25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON BISCAYNE
BAY. SO WILL UP THE SCA TO A GALE WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EVENING
MARINE PACKAGE...AND UP BISCAYNE BAY FROM A SCEC TO A SCA
CONDITION. REST OF THE CWA WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SCA WITH THE
MENTION OF WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS STILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FORECAST
LOWS THAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO NO CHANGES ARE PLAN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE THE SPS THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. IF THE TREND CONTINUES AS IS...THEN A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV UPDATE... /ISSUED 646 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009/

AVIATION...SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND ACTUALLY LOOK TO
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM-WRF WHICH ACCOUNTS
MUCH BETTER FOR DECOUPLING OF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INDICATE
WINDS INCREASING EVEN OVER LAND AFTER ABOUT 06Z. SO WENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WIND GUSTS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...SO MIXING
COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS AOA 30KT. CIGS OF AROUND 4KFT ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUE. KEPT SHRA OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR. /DG

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...
WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AS DECOUPLING WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHEASTWARD
EJECTION OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED REGION OF
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST
OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BLAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE GIVEN
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75-1 INCH. BRISK WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING ACHIEVED AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE CORRIDOR
FROM APF TO PBI...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...WITH THIS EVENT APPEARING TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE COLD OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN
JANUARY 2008. ALTHOUGH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CRATER TO LEVELS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RIVALING HISTORIC FREEZES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...NOR DOES IT
APPEAR TO CONTAIN A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF TRUE/UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
THAT WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT
ANY THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GLADES
AND PERHAPS HENDRY COUNTIES...IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FREEZING SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE PENINSULA...AND CALM
WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE FOR THE AREA
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA APPEARS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VERY LOW
SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE EAST COAST. THE GFS DEPICTION OF
STALLING NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE...BASED ON STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS. EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS EASTERLY FLOW REGIME STRENGTHENS...AND TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BOTH GRADUALLY RISE.

MARINE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL
WATERS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC
WATERS...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE IN PLACE...BUT WILL
CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 6 FEET IN THE SHORT TERM. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT BISCAYNE BAY...WHERE SCEC HEADLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT GIVEN OFF LAND COMPONENT TO WINDS. WINDS VEER FROM WNW-
NW-N FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT TOMORROW...WITH SCA
CONTINUING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. GULF STREAM SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH SEAS LIKELY RISING TO
10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SCA FOR ALL WATERS EXPIRES
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...LONGER RESPONSE TIME FOR
DECAY OF GULF STREAM SEAS WILL NECESSITATE EXTENDING SCA FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH VALUES BEING ACHIEVED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...COUPLED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN LEADING TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  66  39  60 / 20 20 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  61  74  43  61 / 20 20 10 -
MIAMI            63  74  44  60 / 20 20 10 -
NAPLES           63  63  40  59 / 20 20 10 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ651-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-
     AMZ650-AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ610-AMZ650-AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ650-AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-201330-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
945 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...GALE WARNING PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS & LAKE OKEECHOBEE OVERNIGHT...
...WIND CHILLS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY LATE WED NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIND: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
PALM BEACH COAST AS WELL AS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE, OR 34 KNOTS OR HIGHER. DUE TO THESE EXPECTATIONS,
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS
AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REST OF THE LOCAL MARINE AREAS.

WAVES: SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WILL
BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET LATE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON. ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID
40S AT THE COASTS. TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN APPROACH FREEZING OVER
NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE
BIGGER STORY AREA WIDE. A NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 MPH IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, DROPPING WIND CHILLS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE EVEN A POSSIBILITY OVER
NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS.

THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME CALM WHILE A HIGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN RIDGES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S SOUTHEAST COAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COLD IT WILL
GET ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...SO ALL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI ON THIS UPCOMING COLD WEATHER EVENT.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE POOR ON TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM WILL CONTINUE HAZARDOUS THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

FREEZE OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
459 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-073-200300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY
459 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...
...WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD AIRMASS PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...AS TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR A SEVERAL HOURS
CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO, IT
APPEARS THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON
AND THE COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 3, 2008. HERE ARE THE LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR JANUARY 3, 2008:

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 39,
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 39,
WEST PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 35,
NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS 34,
AND MIAMI BEACH WAS 40.

ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST...IF CONDITIONS TREND COLDER...THE
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN RIVAL THE LOW TEMPERATURES OF JANUARY
2003 WHICH WERE:

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...36 ON THE 24TH,
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...35 ON THE 24TH,
WEST PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...33 ON THE 24TH,
NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...33 ON THE 24TH,
AND MIAMI BEACH...37 ON THE 24TH.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS TO 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WIND CHILL READINGS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS ALL OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...THEN A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

BNB/DG

FREEZE OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-073-201100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY
900 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...
...WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD AIRMASS PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...AS TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR A SEVERAL HOURS
CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO, IT
APPEARS THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON
AND THE COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 3, 2008. HERE ARE THE LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR JANUARY 3, 2008:

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 39,
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 39,
WEST PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 35,
NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS 34,
AND MIAMI BEACH WAS 40.

ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST...IF CONDITIONS TREND COLDER...THE
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN RIVAL THE LOW TEMPERATURES OF JANUARY
2003 WHICH WERE:

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...36 ON THE 24TH,
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...35 ON THE 24TH,
WEST PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...33 ON THE 24TH,
NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...33 ON THE 24TH,
AND MIAMI BEACH...37 ON THE 24TH.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS TO 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WIND CHILL READINGS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS ALL OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...THEN A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

BNB/DG