Freeze Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1153 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN BETWEEN
3000 AND 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT NAPLES WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCT STRATO CU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE N AND
DECREASE IN SPEEDS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

/STRASSBERG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009/

UPDATE...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE CURRENT FIRST PERIOD
FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE LOCAL GULF
WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS...AND WILL MENTION SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS REGION ONLY. LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR IS
CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AS MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

REGARDING MARINE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT WESTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS ARE FINALLY DIMINISHING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND WILL ALLOW GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO WIND/WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS THIS
MORNING...WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL WATERS. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009/

AVIATION...LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS/WIND GUSTS LOCATED ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE SOUTH OF KMIA AND KTMB BY 11Z. LOW CLOUD DECK BEHIND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS RANGING
MAINLY FROM 4 TO 6 KFT THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NW LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FNTL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...CLD FNT CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH S FL THIS MORNING
WHILE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS AND HEADS
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING WITH
A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. HIGH TEMPS MAY OCCUR THIS
MORNING WITH IN A FEW HRS OF SUNRISE THEN FALLING OR HOLDING
STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS IN.
BHND THE FNT... MOST OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT, HOWEVER WITH THE
COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS ALTOCU AND A FEW LIGHT
SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST. ALSO, THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA
TODAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ABOVE CALM FOR MOST OF TONIGHT/WED
MORN...HENCE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. TEMPS IN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE COUNTIES AND ALSO MOST OF THE METRO
SECTIONS OF THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL LIKELY STAY WARM ENOUGH TO NOT
MAKE THE 3 HR DURATION OF SUB 35 TEMPS NEEDED FOR THE ADVISORY,
BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE NONE THE LESS. AS
FOR AS THE FREEZE TONIGHT... A FEW ISOLD AREAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 32
OR POSSIBLY 31 IN GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND PALM BEACH. NO FROST
IS EXPECTED DUE TO WIND... BUT TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH DURING
WED WITH EVEN A BIGGER FALL EXPECTED WED NIGHT/THURS MORN.
FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH... LEFT MIAMI-DADE,
MAINLAND MONROE, COASTAL AND METRO SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH,
BROWARD, AND COLLIER OUT OF WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI AS
THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WITH
THE EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND A FEW SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MARINE...A STRONG LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TODAY AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH FL. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY TROUGH THE NEXT 24
HRS WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY... HOWEVER THIS MORNING WIND
GUSTS WILL STILL BE 30 TO 40KTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF PALM
BEACH WITH LESSER GUSTS FOUND ELSEWHERE. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED FOR THE LAKE, GULF, AND BAY TONIGHT, BUT AS NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF STEAM SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET
THROUGH THURS MORN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP ACROSS FL AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE WEAKENING WHICH WILL TURN THE
WINDS E THEN SE WHILE DECREASING INTO FRI AND THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR MORE THAN FOUR CONSECUTIVE HOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... /RHG

THE SAME DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS S FL ON THURS AND INTO
FRI. FIRE WX WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED THESE AFTERNOONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  35  58  36  65 / -  0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE  40  60  41  67 / -  0 0 0
MIAMI            42  61  42  68 / -  0 0 0
NAPLES           43  58  35  65 / -  0 0 0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-
     FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-
     FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
     AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1040 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-211100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1040 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN INTERIOR...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AGAIN INTERIOR, WED NIGHT...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES TODAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY TODAY.

WIND: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS LEADING TO ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BUT ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES: A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER GLADES...HENDRY AND INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR A
SHORT TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT
TENDER VEGETATION...AS TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR A SEVERAL
HOURS CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

WAVES: SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WILL
BUILD TO WELL ABOVE 7 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME CALM WHILE A HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HIGH POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST COAST.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM WILL STILL CONTINUE HAZARDOUS THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG