Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...INTO TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. NONE OF THEM APPEARED TO BE
HANDLING TODAY/S CONVECTION VERY WELL.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...LOWER THEM TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

AT 345 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S. AN MCS/COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS OVER SW MO AND EASTERN
KANSAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TO LAKE ERIE.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. BELIEVE SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT
SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER 8 PM CDT AS HIGH INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS SUPPORT LIFT IN A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUS...WENT WELL ABOVE ANY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
RAIN CHANCES...20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF NORTH MS TO 60/70 PERCENT
NORTH OF I-40. LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE ABOUT 12 HOURS TOO SLOW AT
DEPICT HANDLING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT/RAINFALL OVER THE AREA.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AREAS
NORTH OF I-40 HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT THROUGH 8 PM CDT. SOME
REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. DOUBT THAT
SEVERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH FAIRLY WEAK BULK SHEAR...UNLESS A
STRONG COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP. THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EVEN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS
AND JACKSON AREAS AFTER 7 PM CDT. IF STRONG COLD POOLS CAN
DEVELOP...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTH MS
LATER THIS EVENING.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT...THIS THREAT
MAY BE HIGHER THAN THE SEVERE THREAT WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES. TRAINING OF CELLS MAY BRING A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES...
POSSIBLY MORE...IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-40
THROUGH 8 PM CDT. DID NOT GO WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NOT SURE IF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...KEPT HIGH RAIN CHANCES..60 TO 70 PERCENT...OVER THE
AREA AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GET WET. DOUBT THAT IT WILL
RAIN ALL DAY. TONIGHT/S CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE AIR AND LIMIT
THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT NORTH OF I-40.
APPEARS THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL
MAINLY SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40...BUT NOT CONFIDENT EVEN IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE APPEARS UNLIKELY. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING HOURS
OVER NE MS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE AS CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NE MS WHERE A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY LINGER. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RAINFREE CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. LATEST MODELS INDICATED AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR EAST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS...SO KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES...20 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR KJBR THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS OVER KJBR...KMKL...AND KMEM. SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT
KTUP COULD SEE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AFTER 10Z. WITH THAT MIND IM LEANING IN TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS FOR
KJBR...KMKL...AND KMEM...WITH CIGS AROUND 3K.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  87  73  88 /  40  60  30  10
MKL  71  86  70  87 /  50  60  30  10
JBR  71  86  70  87 /  60  60  20  10
TUP  74  90  71  89 /  20  70  50  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-112230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
319 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 MAINLY BEFORE 8 PM CDT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 8 PM CDT. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
AND FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

MBS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>