Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.UPDATE...
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009/

UPDATE...

TODAY/S FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY TO SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF A JONESBORO AR TO HUNTINGDON TN LINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

AT 1045 AM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...RAINFREE
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 82 TO
90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

REST OF TODAY...NORTHERN AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE BEST SHOT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH MAY BE STRONG/SEVERE WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKEST...CURRENT MCS OVER SW MO MAY DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT
THESE AREAS...AND CLOSE TO AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
IS LOCATED OVER SE MO. FOR NOW...KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS. BELIEVE THE MCS OVER SW MO WILL MAINLY MOVE EAST...
BUT MAY DROP AN OUTFLOW INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 3 PM CDT...WHEN
THESE AREAS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN. WITH THE AIR BEING
MOIST... PW 1.6 TO 2 INCHES...AND VERY UNSTABLE...LIFTED INDICES
-6 TO -11...DAMAGING WIND/MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IF
NOT MORE. THINK CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40...INCLUDING MEMPHIS...OXFORD...AND TUPELO...THINK MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
CAPPING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO DID NOT MENTION IN ZONES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PERSONS OUTDOORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR KJBR THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS OVER KJBR...KMKL...AND KMEM. SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT
KTUP COULD SEE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AFTER 10Z. WITH THAT MIND IM LEANING IN TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS FOR
KJBR...KMKL...AND KMEM...WITH CIGS AROUND 3K.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  75  90  73 /  10  30  70  30
MKL  92  70  86  70 /  20  40  60  30
JBR  93  71  86  70 /  20  50  60  20
TUP  93  74  93  71 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
155 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

ARZ008-009-101930-
CLAY AR-RANDOLPH AR-
155 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED OVER
SUCCESS AT 155 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
CORNING...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
226 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

ARZ008-009-102000-
CLAY AR-RANDOLPH AR-
226 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  WESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYNARD AT 226 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
CORNING AND POCAHONTAS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.