Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THIS COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH
ABOVE 80 DEGREES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
MIDSOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY WITH OFF AND ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

KNS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009/

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY LATER TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. EXPECT TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY THUS WITH THE RAINY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS. READINGS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY 06Z ENDING THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. MAY NEED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z
FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME LINGERING
RAIN MAY CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME DRIER AIR MAY FILTER INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK AS A WARM
FRONT...SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP BUMP HIGHS UP INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING
INTO THE MIDSOUTH...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. SOME CLEARING
MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH END OF FORECAST...THE MIDSOUTH STAYS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW THUS SMALL DISTURBANCES CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF
THE CWA SETTING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY RETURN TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD BACK
INTO THE CWA. IF THIS OCCURS WEDNESDAY COULD BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WHICH COULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO AT LEAST RETURN OVER THE 100
DEGREE MARK POSSIBLY HIGHER.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH AR
AT 18Z. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED... AND HAVE
KEPT PREVAILING THUNDER TO A MINIMUM. BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDER
AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME
FRAME... SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KJBR.

IFR CIGS LIKELY BY 06Z...BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF. THESE CIGS SHOULD KEEP VSBY FROM FALLING TOO LOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  80  71  86  72 / 100  90  10  30
MKL  80  69  84  65 / 100  90  20  20
JBR  79  68  86  67 / 100  60  10  20
TUP  85  72  83  70 /  80 100  50  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-311200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
349 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR EASTERN
AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM