Flash Flood Warning 130, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAINFALL AFTER 00Z SO
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY MORNING ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WEST TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL BE BRIEFLY DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL GLANCE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS TIME...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
BY MIDWEEK...THE GFS ADVERTISES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH. IF THIS PANS
OUT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF CONTINUES AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK SO WILL NEED
TO SEE FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS TIME PERIOD WILL PLAY
OUT.

KNS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH AR
AT 18Z. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED... AND HAVE
KEPT PREVAILING THUNDER TO A MINIMUM. BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDER
AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME
FRAME... SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KJBR.

IFR CIGS LIKELY BY 06Z...BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF. THESE CIGS SHOULD KEEP VSBY FROM FALLING TOO LOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  86  72  86 / 100  10  10  50
MKL  69  85  64  87 / 100  10  10  40
JBR  67  85  65  86 / 100  10  10  50
TUP  72  84  70  86 / 100  20  10  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-312300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
355 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...HOWEVER...AND
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ARZ028-TNZ048-049-302130-
MISSISSIPPI AR-LAUDERDALE TN-TIPTON TN-
353 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTH OF WILSON AT 353 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE...MISSISSIPPI AND TIPTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR FORT PILLOW STATE PARK AND WILSON...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES THE
CHUTE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ARZ036-MSZ001-007-008-302130-
CRITTENDEN AR-DE SOTO MS-TUNICA MS-TATE MS-
405 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3
MILES WEST OF PHILLIPP AT 405 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...DESOTO...TATE AND TUNICA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES
ARKABUTLA LAKE AND HORSESHOE LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.