Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
149 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARM...TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE MORE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN
SHORTLY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ALREADY BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THURSDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST. BY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND SET OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOWER
80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST WHILE DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUT OUT SOME QPF FROM THE
UPPER TROF. HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON COOL ON FRIDAY BUT WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THUS EXPECT
THE FRONT TO STALL. MOST LIKELY ONLY EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES IF ANY AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 90
DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z AT TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KEPT
VCTS PREVAILING IN TAFS WITH A TWO HOUR TEMPO PERIOD BETWEEN
22-24Z. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED AFTER 09Z WITH IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AFTER
12Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  63  80  61  81 /  50  20  10  10
MKL  65  78  58  80 /  50  20  20  10
JBR  60  78  58  81 /  40  20  10  10
TUP  69  82  60  81 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
305 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO COFFEEVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.