Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED TWO PRONOUNCED CIRCULATIONS...THE REMNANT
OF OUR RECENT TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW NORTH OF KANSAS CITY...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHWEST AL. THE LATER LOW PRESSURE WAS THE REMNANTS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKED ACROSS CENTRAL MS YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS HAD EARLIER CREATED CLEAR
SKIES OVER AR...ALLOWING STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. 100MB MIXED
LAYER CAPES HAD REACHED 2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL AR.

EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARED
TO SHOW A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TX. NOT CLEAR IF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK A STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE
CAP OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH IT ARRIVES TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING. 18Z NAM DOESN/T APPEAR TOO IMPRESSED IF QPF IS
ANY INDICATION. IN ANY CASE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE RECENT MOIST SPELL ONCE
AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

WITH A 584DM 500MB RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL... WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING 90.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...EXPECTING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO AGAIN DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ALSO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION
OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND MOIST...UNSTABLE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR ALL SITES
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  85  66  81 /  40  40  20  20
MKL  66  84  66  81 /  40  50  30  30
JBR  68  84  63  79 /  30  40  20  20
TUP  68  86  67  84 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRAIT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A FEW
FUNNEL CLOUDS OR VERY WEAK LAND SPOUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
738 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

ARZ018-026-028-270130-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-GREENE AR-
738 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40
TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MONETTE TO 4 MILES
WEST OF LAKE CITY AT 739 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...GREENE AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BAY...BROOKLAND...CARAWAY...LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE AND
MONETTE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

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