Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1239 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ISSUED 830 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COUPLE FORECAST UPDATES
TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IN WHAT IS A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
FOR THE MIDSOUTH... IT IS A LITTLE TEMPTING TO PULL OVERNIGHT RAIN
CHANCES GIVEN THE STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIMITED
FORCING.

GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED A ROBUST MCS OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND
PINEY WOODS OF EAST TX. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY THE 18Z NAM/GFS OR THE MOST RECENT RUC. IT
APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OFFSHORE...WITH THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL LA/SOUTHERN MS LATER THIS EVENING.
SOME CONCERN THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET MAY
BE SIPHONED OFF BY THE MCS TO OUR SOUTH. ON THE SUPPORTIVE SIDE
FOR RAIN...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST MIDSOUTH AREAS EAST OF THE
MS RIVER WILL SEE SOME LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
POLAR JET MAX TO THE NORTH BY 12Z.

WITH LIMITED FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HAVE TRIMMED BUT NOT ELIMINATED
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

PWB

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE (28/06Z - 29/06Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT KJBR THRU 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KMEM AND KMKL
BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z...FOR NOW PUT IN VCTS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY.

ARS / JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-282230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1022 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A
MARKED TREE CORNING LINE. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

ARZ017-280415-
LAWRENCE AR-
1038 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 20
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNIEVILLE AT 1038 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE CHARLES
STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.