Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 281149
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
647 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

ARC021-031-037-055-075-111-121-MOC069-281330-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090428T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-CLAY AR-RANDOLPH AR-GREENE AR-
LAWRENCE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
647 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR
DUNKLIN...LAWRENCE...GREENE...RANDOLPH...CLAY...POINSETT...CRAIGHEAD
AND CROSS COUNTIES...

AT 647 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. SINCE MIDNIGHT...DOPPLER 
RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 
1 AND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE CHARLES
STATE PARK...CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA...
SENATH...MALDEN...HOLCOMB...GLENNONVILLE...CLARKTON...CARDWELL...
CAMPBELL...ARBYRD...WALNUT RIDGE...WALCOTT...SUCCESS...ST. FRANCIS...
REYNO...RECTOR...RAVENDEN SPRINGS...RAVENDEN...PORTIA...POLLARD...
POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...PEACH ORCHARD...PARAGOULD...OAK GROVE
HEIGHTS...OKEAN...MCDOUGAL...MAYNARD...MARMADUKE...LYNN...LAFE...
KNOBEL...IMBODEN...HOXIE...GREENWAY...FONTAINE...EVENING STAR...
DELAPLAINE...DATTO...DALTON...CORNING...COLLEGE CITY...BLACK ROCK...
BIGGERS...BEECH GROVE...ATTICA AND ANNIEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 8995 3615 9013 3599 9029 3545 9029
      3544 9050 3528 9051 3520 9067 3515 9104
      3588 9104 3590 9137 3623 9136 3625 9127
      3632 9127 3649 9142 3651 9023 3663 9016
      3664 8997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSTIONED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE REGENERATION OVER THE SAME AREAS INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO RECIEVE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN...THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 18Z FOR THESE LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER JET PULLS AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO DIMINISH.

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...LOCAL RADAR DATA
INDICATES A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) THAT DEVELOPED FROM
AN OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) THAT MOVED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND HAS SINCE WEAKENED. THIS MCV FEATURE
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S. EXPECT SBCAPE
VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500J/KG OVER THESE AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE MCV MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER THE REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A WARM...MOIST...AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTEMPTING TO
TIME EACH DISTURBANCE AT THIS POINT REMAINS DIFFICULT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW AS
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME WITH THE STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE DEEPER AS COMPARED TO THE LATEST
ECMWF MODEL. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE GFS SOLUTION PUSHES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
THE FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. ALSO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
STALLING FRONT.

MODEL GUIDANCE LIFTS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS A WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION
POSTIONED BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE DECREASED POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE (28/06Z - 29/06Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT KJBR THRU 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KMEM AND KMKL
BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z...FOR NOW PUT IN VCTS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY.

ARS / JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  78  64  79  66 /  50  30  50  30
MKL  78  60  77  63 /  50  30  50  30
JBR  75  62  77  63 / 100  40  50  30
TUP  82  62  82  62 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
     RANDOLPH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
408 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MEMPHIS.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

ARZ017-280415-
LAWRENCE AR-
1038 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 20
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNIEVILLE AT 1038 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE CHARLES
STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.