Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 112334
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXC377-120015-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-090512T0015Z/
PRESIDIO TX-
634 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY...

AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CASA PIEDRA...OR ABOUT 22 MILES EAST OF
PRESIDIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...BIG BEND
RANCH STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER... HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 10405 2936 10410 2938 10415 2945 10422
      2950 10425 2952 10434 2956 10439 2984 10435
      2990 10406 2980 10380 2926 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 325DEG 14KT 2964 10401

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 112357
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
657 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXC377-120015-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-090512T0015Z/
PRESIDIO TX-
657 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY...

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BIG BEND RANCH STATE PARK...OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LAJITAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...BIG BEND
RANCH STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER... HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 10405 2936 10410 2938 10415 2945 10422
      2950 10425 2952 10434 2956 10439 2984 10435
      2990 10406 2980 10380 2926 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 337DEG 17KT 2950 10397

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 12/06Z.  CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR...WHILE
VISIBILITIES DECREASE TO MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES.  VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AT MIDLAND BETWEEN 12/10Z AND 12/14Z.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12/15Z WILL AID DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
12/15Z.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PLOWED WELL S TDY AND HAS MADE IT INTO THE MTNS.
CLOUDS PERSISTING IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH COOL TEMPS. CLOUDS
CERTAINLY INHIBITING SB INSTABILITY N OF FRONT. MOST UNSTABLE AREA
IS AGAIN ACRS A GOOD PART OF THE TRANS PECOS WHERE KINEMATICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS AGAIN. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS IN
BREWSTER COUNTY SHOW NO CAP WHILE NAM12 HAS COOLER TEMPS AND HOLDS
CAP IN PLACE. INTERESTING TO LOOK AT 3H RH AND SEE HOW NAM12
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AFTER 21Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
POTENTIAL THERE INTO THE EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT THIS
EVENING BUT AS 85H WAA DEVELOPS EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP AROUND 06Z. TUE 7H-5H FLOW WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...
MORESO N OF THE CWFA...THIS WILL SERVE TO ORGANIZE DRYLINE AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY ACRS UPPER TRANS PECOS/SE NM. 7H-5H LR/S WILL REMAIN
STEEP ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE FROM PB INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
AND WITH SFC DWPNTS IN THE 50S CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM12...20KT MAF N BUT
INCREASING TO 25-30KTS ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS. NAM/GFS BOTH
BULLSEYE PECOS COUNTY AFTER 21Z TUE WITH A SLOW MOVING MCS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FCST ALREADY HAS THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED BUT WILL AMPLIFY ON
IT. STILL HOT ON WED WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. BEST DRY AIR SURGE WILL
OCCUR N OF CWFA WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE WED LATE AS
SHRTWV TROF MOVES E ACRS CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. CAP LOOKS A LITTLE
STRONGER WED...ISOLD DRYLINE STORMS AT BEST. FRONT WILL BE MOVING
WED EVENING AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN PB 06-12Z THUR. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL ARRIVE DRY WITH NOTABLY LOWER DWPNTS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS THRU
GDP PASS WILL INCREASE THURS AM WITH FROPA BUT WILL REFLECT ONLY
MODEST INCREASE ATTP. DURING THE AFTERNOON FRONT MAY BE NEAR ERN
AND FAR SRN CWFA AND WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. CURRENT
FCST HAS ISOLD POPS GOING AND WILL OPT TO SHAVE SOME OFF OF WWD
EXTENT. SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER... ESPECIALLY NW-NE. BROAD MID
LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO DESERT SW FRI PM WITH SW MID LEVEL
DEVELOPING ACRS W TX/SE NM. SFC TROF/DRYLINE WILL TAKE WWD
POSITION NEAR MTNS AND 7H-5H LR/S WILL STILL BE STEEP (8.5 C/KM).
EXPECT MINOR SHRTWV TROF/S WITHIN SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE ACRS
THIS REGION FAVORING ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS. 3H JET NOT REALLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT W TX/SE NM COULD BE IN/NEAR LEFT ENTRANCE REGION.
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIP (MCS) AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONSISTENCY.
AS MID LEVEL TROF PASSES SAT ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP S WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT PM. STILL WARM/DRY S
OF FRONT IN THE TRANS PECOS BUT COOLER WITH A SLIGHT BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR THE TRANS PECOS SUN AS FRONT MOVES S OF THE PECOS
RIVER. NW MID LEVEL FLOW SUN/MON. ECMWF SHOWING SIGN OF STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NE NM HIGHLANDS MOVING SE BUT GFS IS DRIER AND WILL
WAIT BEFORE INCORPORATING THIS SCENARIO INTO FCST.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING AND DRYING TREND TUE ESPECIALLY ACRS UPPER TRANS PECOS/SE
NM WHERE TEMPS IN MID AND UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. WEAKER MID LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE DAVIS MTNS SWD WILL INHIBIT DRY LINE FROM MOVING
TOO FAR E BUT CAN EXPECT A BRIEF EWD POSITION IN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE BRIEF RFW CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE GDP MTNS TUE/WED MAINLY IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF
THE PASSES AND EXPOSED RIDGES. DRY AIR WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCE TO
MOVE FARTHER E WED AND IT WILL STILL BE HOT. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THUR MORNING. POOR TO FAIR RECOVERY WED/THUR MORNINGS ACRS MTNS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-121130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
222 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009 /122 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND THE BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG
BEND. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
OR DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SOUTH OF THE
PECOS RIVER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXZ079-080-112145-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
415 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHWESTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES EAST OF CANDELARIA
AT 412 PM CDT...AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FARM TO MARKET 2810.
ANOTHER INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CANDELARIA...AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXZ079-080-112215-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
450 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY AT 449 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 14
MILES NORTHEAST OF CANDELARIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXZ079-080-112300-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
519 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHERN PRESIDIO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF SHAFTER AT 519 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO ONE HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN PRESIDIO COUNTY SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXZ079-080-112345-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
601 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF SHAFTER AT 601 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

TXZ079-080-112330-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
603 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHWESTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PRESIDIO
COUNTY AT 604 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.