Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NEAR MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KFST UNTIL 03Z BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST AS A EAST/WEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE PECOS
RIVER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AT THE KMAF AND KHOB TERMINAL NEAR DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. MVFR LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY IT IS HAS SHIFTED NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE CAP
BREAKING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT STOCKTON PLATEAU
WHERE THE BEST HEATING IS TAKING PLACE WITH A BOOST FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED AREAL
COVERAGE DUE TO RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
COOL SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF THE CAP BREAKING SO WENT MAINLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KILOMETER SHEAR OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. AFTER MONDAY THE
DRY LINE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INTENSE
HEATING ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COULD SET
OFF MORE STORMS TUESDAY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO
LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO AND EAST  INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN BASIN WEDNESDAY AS A
BETTER WESTERLY SURGE OCCURS...SO SHIFTED ISOLATED THUNDER POPS TO
THAT AREA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM FRONT FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING THROUGH
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD TO LEA COUNTY AND EASTWARD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THIS REGIME INTO
THE WEEKEND. A POTENT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO COME INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH
ISOLATED POPS NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009 /109 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND REGION...THE MARFA PLATEAU...THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
LOWER TRANS PECOS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ALSO A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE TRANS
PECOS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LOW...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
808 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             10 S PECOS              31.27N 103.50W
05/10/2009  E0.75 INCH       REEVES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL 10 MILES SOUTH OF PECOS.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
826 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             MARATHON                30.21N 103.24W
05/10/2009  E0.75 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT MARATHON MOTEL IN MARATHON.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
831 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             MARATHON                30.21N 103.24W
05/10/2009  E1.75 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN MARATHON.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             3 NNE MARATHON          30.25N 103.22W
05/10/2009  E1.00 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT OLD BEEKELEY PLACE.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
900 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             7 SSE MARATHON          30.12N 103.20W
05/10/2009  E1.25 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD TWO INCHES DEEP 7
            MILES SSE OF MARATHON.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
915 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             14 SSE MARATHON         30.02N 103.15W
05/10/2009  E1.50 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL REPORTED 14 MILES SSE OF MARATHON.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS