Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
718 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN
OSCILLATING DRYLINE IN PLACE. VERY INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING ALONG
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD HELP IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY (THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID THE STORMS DURING THE
EVENING). A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG WITH MARGINAL SHEAR VALES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

BEYOND TUESDAY KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD
AN UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY BENEATH THE RIDGE. DID
NOT THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION WITH THE FRONT OR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY.

FIRE WEATHER...
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SE COLORADO AND SW KANSAS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE 20 FOOT
WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS.  THERE ARE SOME DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN DEW POINT PROGS
BETWEEN THE WRF AND THE GFS...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH MORE MOIST.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE WRF SOLUTION...
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR.  BASED ON THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SURFACE
LOW POSITION...AND THE EXPECTATION OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE TO THE
EAST...THE DRIER WRF/ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MUCH MORE REALISTIC.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ASSESSMENT TOOL PLACES THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE
ADJACENT PLAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  HOWEVER..WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING TO THE NORTH AND WITH THE WRF SHOWING STRONGER 700 MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

03/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151700-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009 /1053 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS...
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING PLAINS...ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 385 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ARE AT THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.  NEVER DRIVE ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PRESIDIO VALLEY...DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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