Tornado Warning 46, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. AT THE SAME TIME...
WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS/STORMS TO
BECOME ACTIVE OVER THAT AREA AS WELL.

IT/S QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH STRONG STORM THREAT WILL MAKE
IT...AS 18Z SOUNDING FROM KLZK CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION. BUT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE BEFORE SUNDOWN. AT THIS
POINT...THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF I-40...
AND LARGELY ISOLATED AT BEST...GIVEN LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION. THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

BIG FOCUS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SLOW MOVING FRONT AND THE
SYSTEMS AHEAD OF IT WILL DUMP AS MUCH AS FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH TWO TO
FOUR INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH PARTS OF IT MAY BE
DROPPED EARLIER...AS MODELS INDICATING THINGS WILL BE WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

UPPER LOW WILL PUSH REMAINING MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MID SOUTH... WILL
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  54  41  59 / 100 100  60  20
CAMDEN AR         57  58  41  66 / 100 100  50  20
HARRISON AR       49  53  39  58 / 100  60  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  58  40  63 / 100  90  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  57  59  42  63 / 100 100  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     56  59  43  63 / 100 100  70  20
MOUNT IDA AR      51  57  37  62 / 100  80  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  57  38  59 / 100  80  40  20
NEWPORT AR        55  56  43  60 / 100 100  70  20
PINE BLUFF AR     58  60  43  63 / 100 100  60  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  57  37  60 / 100  80  30  20
SEARCY AR         58  57  40  60 / 100 100  60  20
STUTTGART AR      57  59  44  61 / 100 100  70  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
332 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
332 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS
ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 PM FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW...WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. A LINE OF STORMS IS
FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS. WITH THE GROUND WELL SATURATED...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO BRING DOWN TREES. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING. ELSEHWERE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES...WITH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS POSSIBLY SEEING
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

ARZ062-063-067-068-292005-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-
246 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BRADLEY...CALHOUN...CLEVELAND AND
DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 305 PM CDT...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF HARRELL...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE TRI COUNTY LAKE...FORDYCE AND
KINGSLAND.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUANN                  33.39N 92.79W
10/29/2009                   OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 7 JUST NORTH OF
            THE UNION COUNTY LINE

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUANN                  33.39N 92.79W
10/29/2009                   OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 7 AND
            376.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRENCHPORT              33.47N 92.78W
10/29/2009                   OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN...WITH SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE
            REPORTED.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
348 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TORNADO          EAST CAMDEN             33.61N 92.74W
10/29/2009                   OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT EAST CAMDEN AT 342 PM. TREES
            WERE BLOWN DOWN...WITH HIGHWAY 278/274 REPORTED TO BE
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

57