Tornado Warning 42, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO SE TN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND S ACROSS NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVERCOMES CAP IN PLACE AS IT SURGES SW INTO MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL AR. THE WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE OUTFLOW GETS FURTHER AHEAD OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENCOUNTERS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CIN ACROSS THE
W AND SW AR. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY SUNRISE
AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES E OVER THE
APPALACHIANS.

WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE REDEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER S AND W ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING OVER
THE NE THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS AFTERNOON...KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AR...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT.

KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SUPPRESSING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WON/T RULE OUT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IF
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THURSDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE
100 TO 105 RANGE THURSDAY. FRIDAY...COULD SEE HEAT INDICES RISE
ABOVE 105 FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A HEAT ADV FRIDAY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE
SE CONUS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE WILL ALLOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  74  92  73 /  30  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         98  76  99  75 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       93  73  92  74 /  20  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  76  96  75 /  30  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  75  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  76  96  75 /  30  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      97  75  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  73  93  74 /  20  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        94  74  93  73 /  40  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     96  75  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  75  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         94  74  94  73 /  30  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      95  75  94  74 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND DEVELOP A FEW STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS
THE STATE...AND THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...
HEAT INDICES VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
WHILE THESE READINGS WILL FALL JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED DURING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THIS WOULD
BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO REVIEW HEAT SAFETY RULES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISON TO NEWPORT.

THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE COMING
DAYS...DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS...AND THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
HUMIDITY LEVELS. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

57/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
123 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SALEM              36.39N 91.79W
08/05/2009                   FULTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 9 NORTH.

&&

57

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

ARZ016-025-050800-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
231 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR INDEPENDENCE AND JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 230 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUCKERMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE DIAZ...JACKSONPORT...NEWPORT AND
GRUBBS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

ARZ016-025-050830-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
258 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR INDEPENDENCE AND JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 258 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BATESVILLE TO 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NEWARK...JACKSONPORT...NEWPORT...
DIAZ AND GRUBBS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
338 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     HAIL             CONCORD                 35.66N 91.85W
08/05/2009  E0.75 INCH       CLEBURNE           AR   PUBLIC

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PANGBURN            35.43N 91.86W
08/05/2009                   CLEBURNE           AR   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN...AND WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO
            BE 70 TO 80 MPH.

&&

57

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