Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD
WESTWARD. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC INDICATE CONVECTION DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET INTO THE MORE CAPPED
AIRMASS BEFORE THINGS FALL APART. WILL INCLUDE TEMPORARY TSRA
THROUGH 10Z IN THE NORTH. OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS WILL INTERACT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. PREVAILING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

UPDATE...
LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
AREA...CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME
BACKBUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING...WINDS AND HAIL.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH HEAT INDEX
BECOMING A CONCERN. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FORECASTED DEW
POINTS...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND DEVELOP A FEW STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS
THE STATE...AND THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...
HEAT INDICES VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
WHILE THESE READINGS WILL FALL JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED DURING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THIS WOULD
BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO REVIEW HEAT SAFETY RULES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISON TO NEWPORT.

THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE COMING
DAYS...DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS...AND THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
HUMIDITY LEVELS. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

57/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
123 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SALEM              36.39N 91.79W
08/05/2009                   FULTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 9 NORTH.

&&

57