Severe Thunderstorm Warning 521, NWS Little Rock, AR

000 
WWUS54 KLZK 090446
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

ARC071-101-090500-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0521.000000T0000Z-091009T0500Z/
NEWTON AR-JOHNSON AR-
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR JOHNSON AND SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 1145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF DEVILS KNOB
TO DEVILS KNOB TO LUDWIG LAKE TO CLARKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3589 9325 3556 9330 3541 9344 3542 9347
      3540 9350 3541 9355 3539 9360 3540 9368
      3564 9357 3577 9349 3588 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 266DEG 30KT 3582 9335 3567 9336
          3560 9338 3546 9351

$$


61

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
905 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 761 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
STORMS ARE NOW PUSHING INTO BOONE AND MARION COUNTIES. EXPECT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF STORMS. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING
INDICATED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR...AND TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LINE AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY ALSO
INTENSIFY AND WOULD HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ROTATION. EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO LAST MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INDICATE THIS. DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AS THE LINE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE STATE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THIS SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CHCS FOR SVR STORMS WL EXIST FM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING FOR
PARTS OF NRN AR. FOCUS WL THEN SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH OF WRN AND NRN AR TNGT AND FRI MRNG.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND COOL START TO THE DAY ACRS AR...HAVE SEEN
SPRINGLIKE CONDS RETURN THIS AFTN. A WARM FNT HAS CONTD ADVANCING
NWD ACRS THE STATE DURG THE DAY AND WAS SITUATED OVR NRN AR AT MID
AFTN. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH OF THE
BNDRY. BINOVC HAS ALSO ALLOWED AIR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S...AIDED BY GUSTY SLY WINDS.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPACTING AREAS TO THE NW
OF AR TODAY IN THE VCNTY OF A CDFNT. THE FNT IS FCST TO SAG SEWD
INTO NRN AR TNGT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP LATER
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FNT OVR NRN AR. SOME OF THESE STORMS WL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BCM SVR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN INHIBITOR CURRENTLY IS LIMITED INSTABILITY ACRS
NRN AR. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FURTHER DESTABILIZE THIS AFTN...THIS
WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS.

RAINFALL WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS NRN AND WRN AR LATER TNGT AS
THE CDFNT SAGS SEWD. THE RAIN WILL ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
CURRENT FF WATCH FOR TNGT AND FRI MRNG STILL LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN TO
CHGS ATTM. QPF AMOUNTS WL GENERALLY RANGE FM TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVR
NWRN AR INTO FRI...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED OVR CNTRL
SECTIONS. BASED ON REPORTS TO THE NW OF AR THIS AFTN...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN NW
AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL PUSH THRU THE REST OF AR ON FRI...WITH
RAINFALL GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FM THE NW. SOME LINGERING RAIN CHCS
WL CONT INTO FRI NGT OVR SERN AR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE
FROPA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH MUCH OF
AR IN NRLY SFC FLOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE USHERING IN COOL...DRY
AIR. THAT SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT TO THE NE ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
SFC HIGH DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND SFC HIGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A RETURN TO SRLY SFC FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION AT THE END THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  65  45  63 /  80 100  20  10
CAMDEN AR         72  75  52  65 /  30  80  60  20
HARRISON AR       51  56  43  62 / 100  90  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  70  48  65 /  70 100  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  72  49  64 /  50  90  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  76  53  63 /  10  90  70  30
MOUNT IDA AR      64  67  44  65 /  90  90  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  58  41  62 / 100  90  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  66  47  63 /  70  90  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  77  51  63 /  20  90  60  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  66  44  65 / 100  90  10  10
SEARCY AR         66  70  46  63 /  60  90  30  20
STUTTGART AR      68  73  50  63 /  20  90  50  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
530 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
530 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. VERY MOIST AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BECOMING
THREATS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
HIGHEST...AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH ISOLATED LOCALIZED SIX INCH
AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62/60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
958 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

ARZ003>005-012>014-090355-
BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-
958 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BAXTER...BOONE...MARION...NEWTON...
SEARCY AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1055 PM CDT...

AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING OVER BOONE...BAXTER...
MARION COUNTIES...AND MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1016 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W
10/08/2009                   BOONE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN HARRISON OFF HWY 65 ARE FLOODING.
            A WATER RESCUE HAS BEEN REPORTED THERE.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1017 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W
10/08/2009                   BOONE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COTTONWOOD ROAD NEAR HARRISON IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

224