Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SFC WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SWRN AR AT MID AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION
NOTED VCNTY OF THE BNDRY. OTHER SCTD ELEVATED STORMS CONT TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS FM NWRN AR SEWD INTO CNTRL AND SERN AR. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
WITH THE LOSS OF AFTN HEATING.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BRING ANOTHER POTENT SHRTWV FM THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE REGION LATE TNGT AND TUE. AN
ASSOCD SFC LOW/CDFNT WL FORM IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY
SWING EWD JUST N OF AR ON TUE. SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FM THE NW TNGT AND TUE ACRS THE FA. DECIDED TO INCRS POPS ONE CAT
HIGHER THAN PREV FCST FOR TUE. USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER GFS AND
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF PRECIP.

STILL LOOKING AT A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL OVER THE FA FOR
THIS EPISODE. ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY WL KEEP THE SVR POTENTIAL FAIRLY LIMITED.
LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
LUCKILY THE STORM SYS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO FF THREAT SHLD BE
LIMITED.

STORM SYS WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE REGION WED AND WED NGT.
CARRIED SOME LINGERING POPS OVR SERN AR WED MRNG...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT IN PROGGED TO RMN IN PLACE ACRS THE MID SOUTH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDC ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF DROPPING SEWD AND
PASSING N OF AR OVR THE WEEKEND. ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY MOVE
THRU THE FA LATE SAT AND SUN...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD
CONVECTION.

SOME OF THE LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FNTL BNDRY MAY
STALL JUST S OF AR LATE IN THE PD. IF THIS HAPPENS...COULD SEE A
CONTD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVR SRN COUNTIES INTO MON. LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM AS THERE WL BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
110 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
110 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP ENERGIZE SOME OF THE
STORMS AND SOME OF THEM MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO
INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME AREAS
COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK SYSTEMS ALOFT ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIT AND MISS...AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
EVENT ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ON TUESDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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