Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
616 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE EAST AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 5 TO 10 MPH BUT SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTH BEFORE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BECOME MVFR AREA WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER N CENTRAL AND NE
OK...WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST N INTO SE KS THIS MORNING.
LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS SE
KS...NE OK AND SW MO IN VICINITY OF THE SFC...AND IS CURRENTLY
MOVING SE TOWARDS AR.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AR AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHED ACROSS W CENTRAL AR INTO S AR. NEAR SFC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE EVIDENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
70S. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N THIS
MORNING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES E INTO AR. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E AND SE INTO W AND NW AR THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHEST QPF ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE APPROACHING COMPLEX WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...THE SFC LOW WILL PUSH E INTO N CENTRAL AR BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO W
AND NW AR. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER S AR...ALONG WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...AS WELL
NOTABLE LLJ OF 35 TO 45 KTS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THE
MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
AXIS OF BEST 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS SW AND S AR. FURTHER
NORTH...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 3+ INCHES
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH E TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TAKING MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH IT. KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...KEEPING THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE STATE FROM THE NW...INTRODUCING POPS ACROSS NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS N AR...AROUND 80 ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND IN THE MID
80S FURTHER S. WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE
80S STATEWIDE...WARMING TO THE 80S TO LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD MADE UP BY STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EVOLVE WITH THE PATTERN WITH ECMWF KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW PARKED IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY WHILE GFS DAMPENS
THE TROF OUT TO ENCOMPASS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH GFS
SHOWING POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE THE THINKING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SEVERAL WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING
FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE WAVES ARE SUBTLE AND WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES BEING EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE. SOME DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL SOME OF THE LONGER
TERM GUIDANCE STALLS THE BOUNDARY OUT ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
FURTHER JUSTIFYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE AND WILL GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  63  83  63 /  80  70  20  10
CAMDEN AR         84  67  89  66 /  70  70  20  20
HARRISON AR       74  59  82  61 /  80  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  87  64 /  80  50  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  65  86  65 /  80  70  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  68  89  66 /  70  70  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  62  86  62 /  70  40  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  60  83  61 /  80  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  63  84  62 /  80  70  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     82  66  86  65 /  80  70  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  63  86  62 /  80  40  20  10
SEARCY AR         79  64  85  63 /  80  70  20  10
STUTTGART AR      80  65  85  65 /  80  70  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO ARKANSAS FROM
THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
GULF MOISTURE FLOWING BACK INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS CARVED
OUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE....CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE AS IT DOES. THE RESULT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL TAKE
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO CLEAR THE STATE WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA
WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SOME SPOTS MAY PICK UP OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE THAT DOES
MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE...INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
EXCLUDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH NOON BUT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LOW.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK SYSTEMS ALOFT ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIT AND MISS...AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIME AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
POINT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
431 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

ARZ024-032-033-211000-
CLEBURNE-FAULKNER-WHITE-
431 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLEBURNE...FAULKNER AND WHITE
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 431 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ROSE BUD....MOUNT VERNON...
GRAVEL HILL AND ROMANCE.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK

56

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