Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
AT HRO HAD RANGED FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009/

AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER AR...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN...WITH VERY
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY...AND WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING OVER AR...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH...WHILE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.(59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
BORDER...ALONG AND BEHIND OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST.
HOWEVER...BY MIDDAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS.

EXPECT BEST COVERAGE AND STRONGEST STORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAXIMUM SOLAR
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE
UP TO STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT
IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST. HAVE POPS DECREASING RAPIDLY
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY MORNING
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL..WITH SOME SITES SEEING NEAR
RECORD LOWS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN
THE 80S AND LOW 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING A BIT TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...AND WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
AR...MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...AND WILL KEEP DRY. MONDAY THIS TREND
CONTINUES...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES
TUESDAY AS ALSO A BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW SAG CLOSER TO AR. AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT TRENDS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY COMING
DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  73  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  75  58  86 /  50  30   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  73  51  83 /  30  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  75  56  84 /  50  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  73  57  83 /  60  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  75  59  82 /  50  40   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      60  76  55  84 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  75  51  84 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        62  72  56  80 /  50  30   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  73  58  82 /  60  40   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  76  55  86 /  40  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         61  72  56  82 /  50  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      64  72  58  81 /  60  30   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
950 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-040945-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
950 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM ALOFT WAS OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS CLOSE
TO FORT SMITH. THE SYSTEM FORMED OVERNIGHT...AND WAS THE RESULT OF
DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THESE AREAS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP
TRIGGER STORMS...WITH STORMS MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL OR LARGER ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THERE IS ALSO ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...WHICH WILL MAKE
DEVELOPING STORMS MORE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. GIVEN A SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS...AND THIS COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE FRONT
EXITS THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO HEAD
TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE AND
WILL SLOW DOWN.

ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
NEAREST THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEVERE STORMS REMAINING ISOLATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

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