Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
226 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY MIX EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS SEEN
IN THE WTM OBS. SURFACE DEW POINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUE
TO HOLD IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL HAMPER A
QUICK MIX TO THE EAST. THIS DRYLINE MAY BECOME THE SOURCE OF
INITIATION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER WEST OF THE DRYLINE. INCREASING SURFACE HEATING TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED
CAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG SEEN IN RECENT RUC ANALYSIS. THIS
WILL BE IN COMBINATION WITH A LITTLE OR ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CAP.
DESPITE THE WEAKER WINDS ALOFT...BULK SHEAR VECTORS BETWEEN 40 AND
45 KNOTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX COMING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN PLACES MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
WHICH WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. MODERATE HELICITY VALUES ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.

WITH THE MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE AREA...LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM THREAT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FRIDAY WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WARM BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TAKE
SHAPE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE MAY COME ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SHOWERY ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS NOW DEVELOPING A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL
SOLUTION HAS A DEEPER AND SLOWER MOVING TROUGH. CONTINUED TO SIDE
WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION GIVEN ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY IN
CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  89  49  82  45 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         58  89  51  79  47 /  40  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     59  91  54  83  50 /  50  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     59  92  56  89  52 /  30  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       61  92  60  87  52 /  40  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   59  94  56  89  54 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  93  58  89  54 /  30  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     62  89  63  83  52 /  30  20  10  10  20
SPUR          63  90  64  88  53 /  50  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     64  89  65  89  56 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

TXZ021>044-301645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1131 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A DRYLINE BULGE MAY DEVELOP INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ALSO...LOCALLY BACKED WINDS...EITHER ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
DRYLINE BULGE...OR ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
THE NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS...HOWEVER WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
436 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             1 W CEE VEE             34.23N 100.46W
04/29/2009  E1.50 INCH       COTTLE             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00420

JURECKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             1 W CEE VEE             34.23N 100.46W
04/29/2009  E1.75 INCH       COTTLE             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER 00420

JURECKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             8 S QUITAQUE            34.25N 101.06W
04/29/2009  E1.00 INCH       FLOYD              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00421

JURECKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             5 S QUITAQUE            34.29N 101.06W
04/29/2009  E1.75 INCH       FLOYD              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00422

JURECKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             BRICE                   34.71N 100.89W
04/29/2009  E1.75 INCH       HALL               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00423

JURECKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             12 N QUITAQUE           34.54N 101.06W
04/29/2009  E2.75 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00424

JURECKA