Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 241256
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
756 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

MOC019-051-135-241306-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090324T1315Z/
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-BOONE MO-
756 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BOONE...MONITEAU AND
NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND 
PEA-SIZED HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
BOONE...EXTREME NORTHERN COLE...AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CALLAWAY
COUNTY.  

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3869 9263 3889 9252 3897 9238
      3865 9220 3864 9222 3861 9221 3842 9259
      3842 9261 3843 9263 3867 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1256Z 240DEG 49KT 3876 9232

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/453 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009/
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FOR TODAY WILL SEE ROUND ONE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...MOVING INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA BY
7 PM. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO RESULT IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF CALHOUN COUNTY TO CRAWFORD COUNTY LINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOW IN IT PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING...WILL SEE SHORTWAVE FINALLY EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
03Z. SO WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WEAKENING
...STILL ANTICIPATE A NEW LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS PLENTIFUL AS ARE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE THE QUESTION MARK. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS STILL
DEPICTING POCKETS OF SBCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD SIGNAL MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE SYSTEM...
THINK THE FLOOD THREAT IS LOCALIZED AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT MAJOR STORM
SYSTEM IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/632 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TRIED TO THINK SLOW WITH PROGRESSION OF TSRA
ACR FA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS MAIN EWD SURGE SHOULD OCCUR
AS PRIMARY TROF ROTATES THROUGH S SIDE OF UPR LOW LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD BUT FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION...SO AT EACH TAF SITE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT A 3-4 HR
WINDOW OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER SEVERAL
HOURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE BASED ON A COMBO OF
LOCAL WRF/MESO NAM/WRF FORECASTS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO THE PCPN
ONCE FROPA OCCURS. SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS DRY SLOT SHOOTS ACR AREA...ALTHO IT DOES LOOK LIKE N
PARTS OF THE FA...INCLUDING THE UIN AREA...WILL RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS WRAP AROUND SLOW MOVING LOW.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-IRON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MADISON-
     REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
     STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
432 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-251200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
432 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...AND ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. PLEASE SEE
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A NEW STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ASKED TO RELAY SEVERE REPORTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BYRD