Wind Advisory 6, NWS St. Louis, MO

Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

000 
WWUS73 KLSX 242039
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING VERY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

ILZ058-098-099-MOZ052-060>065-072>075-084-085-099-242145-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090325T0000Z/
GREENE IL-CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-
FRANKLIN-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST CHARLES...UNION...ST LOUIS...
FARMINGTON
339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...AND MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

ILZ059-079-100>102-250000-
/O.CON.KLSX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090325T0000Z/
MACOUPIN IL-RANDOLPH IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE
339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS...GUSTING TO 45 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THOSE WORKING IN AND NEAR CONSTRUCTION SITES SHOULD TAKE TIME TO
MAKE CERTAIN THAT STRUCTURES ARE PROPERLY BRACED FOR THESE HIGH
WINDS...AND THAT BUILDING MATERIALS ARE TIED DOWN. PEOPLE
THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD ALSO MAKE CERTAIN THAT
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR FURNITURE...GRILLS...AND TRASH CANS ARE
PROPERLY SECURED.

THOSE DRIVING LIGHTWEIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO
USE CAUTION...AS THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL YOUR VEHICLE. LOSS OF CONTROL WILL BE OF SPECIAL CONCERN
WHILE DRIVING ON EAST-WEST ROADS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH.

&&

$$

ILZ060-064-065-069-070-074-250300-
/O.CON.KLSX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090325T0300Z/
MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-MARION IL-
WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM
339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THOSE WORKING IN AND NEAR CONSTRUCTION SITES SHOULD TAKE TIME TO
MAKE CERTAIN THAT STRUCTURES ARE PROPERLY BRACED FOR THESE HIGH
WINDS...AND THAT BUILDING MATERIALS ARE TIED DOWN. PEOPLE
THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD ALSO MAKE CERTAIN THAT
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR FURNITURE...GRILLS...AND TRASH CANS ARE
PROPERLY SECURED.

THOSE DRIVING LIGHTWEIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO
USE CAUTION...AS THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL YOUR VEHICLE. LOSS OF CONTROL WILL BE OF SPECIAL CONCERN
WHILE DRIVING ON EAST-WEST ROADS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH.

&&

$$

GLASS

000 
WWUS73 KLSX 242245
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

ILZ060-064-065-069-070-074-242345-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090325T0300Z/
MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-MARION IL-
WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM
545 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT PROMPTED THE WIND ADVISORY HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW THESE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

$$

ILZ059-079-100>102-242345-
/O.CAN.KLSX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090325T0000Z/
MACOUPIN IL-RANDOLPH IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE
545 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT PROMPTED THE WIND ADVISORY HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW THESE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1125 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.UPDATE...
/955 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009/

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN WITH THE PCPN CHCS LATER
TONIGHT. MAIN BODY OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED WHERE EXPECTED ACROSS
CNTRL IA AND INTO NWRN MO AND BACK TOWARDS CNTRL KS. SOME SMALLER
CLUSTERS OF TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS...AND ARE
MAINLY LO LEVEL JET GENERATED.

THE BEST LO LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MLCAPE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR W THRU LATE TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING OR CAPE TO GENERATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE LO LEVEL JET
BUT WHAT DOES GET PRODUCED WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. FORWARD PROP VECTORS WILL ALSO BACK WITH TIME TONIGHT...
WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO ADVECTING THIS READILY INTO THE FA
EITHER.

HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NWRN AND WRN EDGE OF THE FA...AROUND NERN/CNTRL MO FOR
LATE TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL GET EDGED BY THE MOST OF THESE SMALL
TSRA CLUSTERS AND MAY EVEN GET THE FAR ERN EDGE OF THE MAIN LINE
BY 12Z. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TES

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/339 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009/

THE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME IS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. STORM ONE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT US LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND ONE PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

STORM ONE HAS BEEN GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ALL DAY. FIRST OFF IS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS DEVELOPED. THIS GRADIENT IN
CONCERT WITH MIXING IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREA MIGRATING THROUGH THE
CWA HAS RESULTED IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPANDING INTO NE MO AND
WRN IL. ACCORDINGLY I HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVSRY THRU EARLY
EVENING TO THOSE LOCALES. BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA AROUND 00Z BUT WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NEXT REAL CHANGE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EVOLUTION OF PCPN. THE NEW
MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THAT WAA SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN MO AND EXPAND NEWD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE PLAINS CDFNT AND DRYLINE. THIS WAA ACTIVITY FIRST SHOWED UP IN
THE 00Z RUNS AND IS NOW PRESENT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE EXPLICIT HI RES WRF RUNS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ACTIVITY
ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SW MO...AND GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
50+ KT SWLY LLJ THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT I HAVE BOOSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG I-70 AND
NWD. THE REMNANT LINEAR CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD PUSH
INTO CENTRAL MO DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS IN WEAKENING FASHION.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT
ON TUESDAY. MAY ULTIMATELY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVSRY FOR WRN IL DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL NOT REAL CLEAR
CUT FOR TUESDAY...BUT HIGH POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. ANTICIPATING THE
MORNING ACTIVITY WILL GO THROUGH A WEAKENING TREND...THEN A NEW
LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT IN
RESPONSE TO FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWV TROF SWINGING THROUGH
THE MID MS VLY. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLENTIFUL AS
ARE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN THE QUESTION
MARK. THE 12Z NAM AND A LOCAL HI RES WRF IS NOW DEPICTING POCKETS
OF SBCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS WOULD SIGNAL MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...PRODUCING LOCALLIZED CORIDOORS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS
WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE SYSTEM...I
THINK THE FLOOD THREAT IS LOCALLIZED ATTM.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING THE
NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IN THE PRIMARILY FRI-EARLY SAT TIME FRAME.
WAA PCPN COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURS NIGHT...HENCE THE POPS
THAT EARLY. EXACT TRACK OF THIS LATER STORM IS STILL A BIT OF A
UNCERTAINTY..BUT FAVORING THE CMC GEM AND ECMWF ATTM...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO BOOST THE POPS.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1109 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...RELATIVELY STG ANG GUSTY S-SELY SFC WNDS WL
CONT FOR THE LT NGT HRS AS STG S-SWLY LLJ TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD
THRU THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND INTO TUE MRNG.
ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT SMALL SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONT TO DVLP AND MOVE
RAPIDLY NEWD THRU THE CWA AS THE STG LLJ BRINGS INCRSG LOW LVL
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL
INCLUDE EITHER VCTS/VCSH IN THE TAFS LT TGT OR A TEMPO GRP OF
SHRA/TSRA DEPENDING ON THE LATEST EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND
THE RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD BE MAINLY MID LVL WAA CLOUDS FOR LT
TGT...WITH SOME LOW LVL VFR CLOUDS EVENTUALLY ADVECTING INTO COU
AND UIN TOWARDS MRNG. CDFNT WILL MOVE SEWD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTN
WITH A LINE OF TSRA LIKELY JUST AHD OF THIS CDFNT. SHOULD BE A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY LT TUE MRNG AND AFTN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. STG AND GUSTY SLY SFC WNDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ARND TO A
SWLY DIRECTION BHND THE CDFNT. LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD CLR OUT
FAIRLY RAPIDLY LT TUE AFTN AND EVNG AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
AND AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES NEWD THRU THE CWA.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...
BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. PLEASE SEE
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A NEW STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES