Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
705 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/352 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009/

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER AND ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER. THERE IS STILL ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN EXTREME SE MO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HRS AS WE ENTER A WET PERIOD.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT BOUNDARY IN/NEAR THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT WILL
RETURN TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO RETURN ON AT
LEAST A SCATTERED BASIS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST IL THIS AFTERNOON AS 3000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS ATTENTION FOCUSES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. 50 KT
LLJ RAMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND VEERS WSWLY BY 12Z. LOOKS TO BE
MULTIPLE MCS/S OVERNIGHT. WITH PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES...SETUP FAVORS
HEAVY RAINFALL. BUMPED UP POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO REFLECT THIS.

.WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST DURING THE MORNING. CONVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO NE CAP IN PLACE. ANOTHER STRONGER SURFACE WAVE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH
HAS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH S/SE OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...UPPED POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FRIDAY IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES MADE PAST SATURDAY.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
/655 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009/ FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN IOWA IS DOMINATING THE REGION ATTM WITH WEAK
SFC WINDS. SOME STRATOCU FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF IL THRU
THE STL AREA. IT APPEARS THIS IS PUSHING EWD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF KSTL SOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING INTO SRN MO...ACCOMPANIED BY A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CU. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QSTNRY
ACROSS SRN MO INTO SRN IL BY AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
STOUT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TONIGHT. TOOK MY BEST GUESS AT SOME TEMPO THUNDER
GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES...AND THE LONGEVITY OF THE THUNDER COULD
CERTAINLY BE LONGER.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
456 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
456 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT
MEREDOSIA. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY FOR THE AREA. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT
MEREDOSIA. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
237 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

MOZ099-092100-
REYNOLDS MO-
237 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REYNOLDS COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

AT 233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AND VERY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUMMERSVILLE...OR 22
MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

IF THIS STORM MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK REYNOLDS COUNTY WILL BE IN DIRECT LINE FOR THIS TORNADIC
SUPERCELL.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM WOULD INCLUDE...BUNKER...
REYNOLDS...ELLINGTON...GARWOOD...CORRIDON...REDFORD
...CENTERVILLE...LESTERVILLE AND BLACK.

CVKING