River Flood Warning 181, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
638 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/343 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SWAMPING PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.  HIGHEST
AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TODAY.  SHORT-RANGE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHIFTING FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
OZARKS...CLOSER TO I-44.  RUC AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RAMPING UP ON THE LOW LEVEL JET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  THIS
SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TOWARD OUR
AREA.  THINK THE EASTERN OZARKS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 COULD EASILY
RECEIVE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT.  THIS RAIN WILL FALL
ONTO ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...SO FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
REAL THREAT.  HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING GOING
AS-IS.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END GRADUAL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  THE ATMOSPHERE TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER...COLDER AND
STRONGER HIGH ON SUNDAY.  NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL GET. NAM IS FORECASTING
MID-UPPER 20S FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOESNT EVEN GET TO FREEZING ANYWHERE.
ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER FORECAST SINCE
WELL BE STUCK IN ZONAL FLOW.  WOULD PREFER TO SEE A DEEP TROF DIP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO GET US OUR FIRST FREEZE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME PRETTY COLD AIR LURKING UP
IN WESTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD SPILL DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.  NOT REALLY
A GREAT PATTERN WHICH HELPS US LOCK ONTO FEATURES TO HELP US
FORECAST.  HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT WE COULD
SEE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...SINCE TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE IN
SERIOUS QUESTION...HAVE NOT PUT POPS IN FOR NOW.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/625 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VISBYS DUE TO RA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREA OF MOD RA
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTL TO NRN MO AND W CNTL IL WILL BEGIN TO REFOCUS
FURTHER SWD AS FORCING BECOMES BETTER FURTHER S. CIGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT FRI AS RA COMES TO AN END. SITES SHUD BECOME VFR LATE FRI
AFTN INTO THE EVE HOURS.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     LINCOLN-MADISON-MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-REYNOLDS-ST.
     CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
411 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR
IN ILLINOIS.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING ON LOCAL
STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. SEE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THIS FLOODING EVENT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY BEFORE COMING TO
AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A VANDALIA ILLINOIS TO VIBURNUM MISSOURI LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL REPORTS
FROM STORM SPOTTERS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
734 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT OLIVE             39.07N  89.73W
10/08/2009  M4.80 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   PUBLIC

            0.80 INCHES SINCE 7 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900185

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
739 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ENE MARTHASVILLE      38.66N  90.95W
10/08/2009  M2.37 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900186

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DORCHESTER              39.09N  89.89W
10/08/2009  M4.25 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900187

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
831 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 S STEELVILLE          37.87N  91.36W
10/08/2009  M3.70 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.7 INCHES SINCE 2 PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900188

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MARYLAND HEIGHTS        38.72N  90.48W
10/08/2009  M2.20 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT KTVI STUDIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900189

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELLISVILLE              38.59N  90.59W
10/08/2009  E3.00 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900190

MILLER